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全英语论文3000自带翻译

发布时间:2023-12-09 15:09

全英语论文3000自带翻译

华文版本


The Internet is a worldwide, publicly accessible series of interconnected computer networks that transmit data by packet switching using the standard Internet Protocol (IP). It is a "network of networks" that consists of millions of smaller domestic, academic, business, and government networks, which together carry various information and services, such as electronic mail, online chat, file transfer, and the interlinked web pages and other resources of the World Wide Web (WWW).

History
Creation
The USSR's launch of Sputnik spurred the United States to create the Advanced Research Projects Agency, known as ARPA, in February 1958 to regain a technological lead.[1][2] ARPA created the Information Processing Technology Office (IPTO) to further the research of the Semi Automatic Ground Environment (SAGE) program, which had networked country-wide radar systems together for the first time. J. C. R. Licklider was selected to head the IPTO, and saw universal networking as a potential unifying human revolution.

Licklider moved from the Psycho-Acoustic Laboratory at Harvard University to MIT in 1950, after becoming interested in information technology. At MIT, he served on a committee that established Lincoln Laboratory and worked on the SAGE project. In 1957 he became a Vice President at BBN, where he bought the first production PDP-1 computer and conducted the first public demonstration of time-sharing.

At the IPTO, Licklider recruited Lawrence Roberts to head a project to implement a network, and Roberts based the technology on the work of Paul Baran,[citation needed] who had written an exhaustive study for the U.S. Air Force that recommended packet switching (as opposed to circuit switching) to make a network highly robust and survivable. After much work, the first two nodes of what would become the ARPANET were interconnected between UCLA and SRI International in Menlo Park, California, on October 29, 1969. The ARPANET was one of the "eve" networks of today's Internet. Following on from the demonstration that packet switching worked on the ARPANET, the British Post Office, Telenet, DATAPAC and TRANSPAC collaborated to create the first international packet-switched network service. In the UK, this was referred to as the International Packet Stream Service (IPSS), in 1978. The collection of X.25-based networks grew from Europe and the US to cover Canada, Hong Kong and Australia by 1981. The X.25 packet switching standard was developed in the CCITT (now called ITU-T) around 1976. X.25 was independent of the TCP/IP protocols that arose from the experimental work of DARPA on the ARPANET, Packet Radio Net and Packet Satellite Net during the same time period. Vinton Cerf and Robert Kahn developed the first description of the TCP protocols during 1973 and published a paper on the subject in May 1974. Use of the term "Internet" to describe a single global TCP/IP network originated in December 1974 with the publication of RFC 675, the first full specification of TCP that was written by Vinton Cerf, Yogen Dalal and Carl Sunshine, then at Stanford University. During the next nine years, work proceeded to refine the protocols and to implement them on a wide range of operating systems.

The first TCP/IP-wide area network was made operational by January 1, 1983 when all hosts on the ARPANET were switched over from the older NCP protocols to TCP/IP. In 1985, the United States' National Science Foundation (NSF) commissioned the construction of a university 56 kilobit/second network backbone using computers called "fuzzballs" by their inventor, David L. Mills. The following year, NSF sponsored the development of a higher-speed 1.5 megabit/second backbone that became the NSFNet. A key decision to use the DARPA TCP/IP protocols was made by Dennis Jennings, then in charge of the Supercomputer program at NSF.

The opening of the network to commercial interests began in 1988. The US Federal Networking Council approved the interconnection of the NSFNET to the commercial MCI Mail system in that year and the link was made in the summer of 1989. Other commercial electronic e-mail services were soon connected, including OnTyme, Telemail and Compuserve. In that same year, three commercial Internet Service Providers were created: UUNET, PSINET and CERFNET. Important, separate networks that offered gateways into, then later merged with, the Internet include Usenet and BITNET. Various other commercial and educational networks, such as Telenet, Tymnet, Compuserve and JANET were interconnected with the growing Internet. Telenet (later called Sprintnet) was a large privately funded national computer network with free dial-up access in cities throughout the U.S. that had been in operation since the 1970s. This network was eventually interconnected with the others in the 1980s as the TCP/IP protocol became increasingly popular. The ability of TCP/IP to work over virtually any pre-existing communication networks allowed for a great ease of growth, although the rapid growth of the Internet was due primarily to the availability of commercial routers from companies such as Cisco Systems, Proteon and Juniper, the availability of commercial Ethernet equipment for local-area networking and the widespread implementation of TCP/IP on the UNIX operating system.

Common uses of the Internet
E-mail
For more details on this topic, see E-mail.
The concept of sending electronic text messages between parties in a way analogous to mailing letters or memos predates the creation of the Internet. Even today it can be important to distinguish between Internet and internal e-mail systems. Internet e-mail may travel and be stored unencrypted on many other networks and machines out of both the sender's and the recipient's control. During this time it is quite possible for the content to be read and even tampered with by third parties, if anyone considers it important enough. Purely internal or intranet mail systems, where the information never leaves the corporate or organization's network, are much more secure, although in any organization there will be IT and other personnel whose job may involve monitoring, and occasionally accessing, the e-mail of other employees not addressed to them.

The World Wide Web
Many people use the terms Internet and World Wide Web (or just the Web) interchangeably, but, as discussed above, the two terms are not synonymous.

The World Wide Web is a huge set of interlinked documents, images and other resources, linked by hyperlinks and URLs. These hyperlinks and URLs allow the web servers and other machines that store originals, and cached copies, of these resources to deliver them as required using HTTP (Hypertext Transfer Protocol). HTTP is only one of the communication protocols used on the Internet.

Web services also use HTTP to allow software systems to communicate in order to share and exchange business logic and data.

Software products that can access the resources of the Web are correctly termed user agents. In normal use, web browsers, such as Internet Explorer and Firefox, access web pages and allow users to navigate from one to another via hyperlinks. Web documents may contain almost any combination of computer data including graphics, sounds, text, video, multimedia and interactive content including games, office applications and scientific demonstrations.

Through keyword-driven Internet research using search engines like Yahoo! and Google, millions of people worldwide have easy, instant access to a vast and diverse amount of online information. Compared to encyclopedias and traditional libraries, the World Wide Web has enabled a sudden and extreme decentralization of information and data.

Using the Web, it is also easier than ever before for individuals and organisations to publish ideas and information to an extremely large audience. Anyone can find ways to publish a web page or build a website for very little initial cost. Publishing and maintaining large, professional websites full of attractive, diverse and up-to-date information is still a difficult and expensive proposition, however.

Many individuals and some companies and groups use "web logs" or blogs, which are largely used as easily updatable online diaries. Some commercial organisations encourage staff to fill them with advice on their areas of specialization in the hope that visitors will be impressed by the expert knowledge and free information, and be attracted to the corporation as a result. One example of this practice is Microsoft, whose product developers publish their personal blogs in order to pique the public's interest in their work.

Collections of personal web pages published by large service providers remain popular, and have become increasingly sophisticated. Whereas operations such as Angelfire and GeoCities have existed since the early days of the Web, newer offerings from, for example, Facebook and MySpace currently have large followings. These operations often brand themselves as social network services rather than simply as web page hosts.

Advertising on popular web pages can be lucrative, and e-commerce or the sale of products and services directly via the Web continues to grow.

In the early days, web pages were usually created as sets of complete and isolated HTML text files stored on a web server. More recently, websites are more often created using content management system (CMS) or wiki software with, initially, very little content. Contributors to these systems, who may be paid staff, members of a club or other organisation or members of the public, fill underlying databases with content using editing pages designed for that purpose, while casual visitors view and read this content in its final HTML form. There may or may not be editorial, approval and security systems built into the process of taking newly entered content and making it available to the target visitors.

Social impact
The Internet has made possible entirely new forms of social interaction, activities and organizing, thanks to its basic features such as widespread usability and access.

Social networking websites such as Facebook and MySpace have created a new form of socialization and interaction. Users of these sites are able to add a wide variety of items to their personal pages, to indicate common interests, and to connect with others. It is also possible to find a large circle of existing acquaintances, especially if a site allows users to utilize their real names, and to allow communication among large existing groups of people.

Sites like exist to allow wider announcement of groups which may exist mainly for face-to-face meetings, but which may have a variety of minor interactions over their group's site at , or other similar sites.

Political organization and censorship
For more details on this topic, see Internet censorship.
In democratic societies, the Internet has achieved new relevance as a political tool. The presidential campaign of Howard Dean in 2004 in the United States became famous for its ability to generate donations via the Internet. Many political groups use the Internet to achieve a whole new method of organizing, in order to carry out Internet activism.

Some governments, such as those of Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Myanmar, the People's Republic of China, and Saudi Arabia, restrict what people in their countries can access on the Internet, especially political and religious content. This is accomplished through software that filters domains and content so that they may not be easily accessed or obtained without elaborate circumvention.

In Norway, Denmark, Finland and Sweden, major Internet service providers have voluntarily (possibly to avoid such an arrangement being turned into law) agreed to restrict access to sites listed by police. While this list of forbidden URLs is only supposed to contain addresses of known child pornography sites, the content of the list is secret.[citation needed]

Many countries, including the United States, have enacted laws making the possession or distribution of certain material, such as child pornography, illegal, but do not use filtering software.

There are many free and commercially available software programs with which a user can choose to block offensive websites on individual computers or networks, such as to limit a child's access to pornography or violence. See Content-control software.

Leisure activities
The Internet has been a major source of leisure since before the World Wide Web, with entertaining social experiments such as MUDs and MOOs being conducted on university servers, and humor-related Usenet groups receiving much of the main traffic. Today, many Internet forums have sections devoted to games and funny videos; short cartoons in the form of Flash movies are also popular. Over 6 million people use blogs or message boards as a means of communication and for the sharing of ideas.

The pornography and gambling industries have both taken full advantage of the World Wide Web, and often provide a significant source of advertising revenue for other websites. Although many governments have attempted to put restrictions on both industries' use of the Internet, this has generally failed to stop their widespread popularity.

One main area of leisure on the Internet is multiplayer gaming. This form of leisure creates communities, bringing people of all ages and origins to enjoy the fast-paced world of multiplayer games. These range from MMORPG to first-person shooters, from role-playing games to online gambling. This has revolutionized the way many people interact and spend their free time on the Internet.

While online gaming has been around since the 1970s, modern modes of online gaming began with services such as GameSpy and MPlayer, to which players of games would typically subscribe. Non-subscribers were limited to certain types of gameplay or certain games.

Many use the Internet to access and download music, movies and other works for their enjoyment and relaxation. As discussed above, there are paid and unpaid sources for all of these, using centralized servers and distributed peer-to-peer technologies. Discretion is needed as some of these sources take more care over the original artists' rights and over copyright laws than others.

Many use the World Wide Web to access news, weather and sports reports, to plan and book holidays and to find out more about their random ideas and casual interests.

People use chat, messaging and e-mail to make and stay in touch with friends worldwide, sometimes in the same way as some previously had pen pals. Social networking websites like MySpace, Facebook and many others like them also put and keep people in contact for their enjoyment.

The Internet has seen a growing number of Web desktops, where users can access their files, folders, and settings via the Internet.

Cyberslacking has become a serious drain on corporate resources; the average UK employee spends 57 minutes a day surfing the Web at work, according to a study by Peninsula Business Services.[9]

Complex architecture
Many computer scientists see the Internet as a "prime example of a large-scale, highly engineered, yet highly complex system".[10] The Internet is extremely heterogeneous. (For instance, data transfer rates and physical characteristics of connections vary widely.) The Internet exhibits "emergent phenomena" that depend on its large-scale organization. For example, data transfer rates exhibit temporal self-similarity. Further adding to the complexity of the Internet is the ability of more than one computer to use the Internet through only one node, thus creating the possibility for a very deep and hierarchal sub-network that can theoretically be extended infinitely (disregarding the programmatic limitations of the IPv4 protocol). However, since principles of this architecture date back to the 1960s, it might not be a solution best suited to modern needs, and thus the possibility of developing alternative structures is currently being looked into.[11]

According to a June 2007 article in Discover magazine, the combined weight of all the electrons moved within the Internet in a day is 0.2 millionths of an ounce.[12] Others have estimated this at nearer 2 ounces (50 grams).[13]

Marketing
The Internet has also become a large market for companies; some of the biggest companies today have grown by taking advantage of the efficient nature of low-cost advertising and commerce through the Internet, also known as e-commerce. It is the fastest way to spread information to a vast number of people simultaneously. The Internet has also subsequently revolutionized shopping—for example; a person can order a CD online and receive it in the mail within a couple of days, or download it directly in some cases. The Internet has also greatly facilitated personalized marketing which allows a company to market a product to a specific person or a specific group of people more so than any other advertising medium.

Examples of personalized marketing include online communities such as MySpace, Friendster, Orkut, Facebook and others which thousands of Internet users join to advertise themselves and make friends online. Many of these users are young teens and adolescents ranging from 13 to 25 years old. In turn, when they advertise themselves they advertise interests and hobbies, which online marketing companies can use as information as to what those users will purchase online, and advertise their own companies' products to those users.

英语议论文经典范文3篇(带翻译)

有很多的同学在写英语 作文 的时候,也会写一些经典的议论文,我整理了相关范文,希望会对大家有所帮助!

英语作文范文带中文翻译

Manyyearsago,themovieabouttheyouthbecameverypopular,everyyear,wecanseemanyhotmoviesabouttheprotagonist’liketorecalltheirpassedyouth,ndthecommonthingsaboutthesemovies,alltheprotagonists’youthareaboutfighting,standthedirectors’intention,semovieisexaggerating,therealyouthisaboutstudying,atleast,emoviesdescribemakeupsomepeople’syouth,forwhichtheydon’ldnotbemisledbythesemovies,fortheteenagers,theirjobistostudy,sothattheycanhaveabrightfuture.

【翻译】很多年以前,关于青春的电影很受欢迎,此后每年,我们都可以看到很多热门电影是关于主人公逝去的青春。人们喜欢回忆他们逝去的青春,这才是让这类电影好卖的原因。但是我发现了这些电影的共同点,那就是所有的主人公的青春都是关于大家,恋爱和其他消极的东西。我明白导演们的意图,他们想要告诉人们青春是不完美的,存在遗憾。当然电影是夸张化的,真正的青春是关于学习,至少,大部分人是如此努力的学习,为了进入理想的大学。电影所刻画的弥补了一些人的青春,对于他们没有机会去体验这些东西。我们不应该被电影误导,对于青少年来说,他们的工作是学习,这样他们才能有一个美好的未来。

高中英语作文范文80词

fall,t,illremovethesubtitle,lly,ly,y,rdformetounderstandthemeaningofasentenceifIdon’’tworryaboutlosingface,remymethods.

我喜欢英语。我觉得我可以和你分享一下我的英语学习方法。首先,培养对英语的兴趣。我的方法是看国外电影。一开始,我会留着字幕一起看。之后我就会不看字幕,只留英文。渐渐地,我对英语表现出极大的兴趣。其次,背诵词汇。词汇是学习英语的必要根基。这一点你只能强迫自己去背了。第三,完全理解基本语法。如果我不懂基本语法,我会很难理解一整个句子的意思。最后但并非最不重要的是要多说。学习语言的基本目的就是进行沟通。因此,尽可能多的用英语交谈。不要担心丢脸,因为每个人都会犯错误的。这些就是我的方法。

英语作文100词左右带翻译——珍惜时间

Chininthelastdayofthelunaryear,endinthe15thdayoflunarNewYear,theSpringFestival,peopleuseredlanternandSpringFestivalcoupletsdecorateahouse,putonallkindsofcoloredclothes,often

derit(this)?Becauseweallknowthatwecanearnmoneybeworkbutcannotinanywaygetbacktime(inanyway).Forthisreason,wemay(can)saythattimeismorevaluablethanmoney.

(this)bear(keep)inmindthatwastingtimeisequaltowastingyourlife.

【翻译】英国有句谚语说,时间就是金钱。我认为这是不对的。为什么?因为我们大家都知道我们能够用工作赚钱,但无论如何却无法把时间争取回来。基于此种理由,我们可以说时间比钱钱更宝贵。

许多人不知爱惜时光。这确实是可惜的。我们必须记住浪费时间等于浪费生命。

急!!求经济类英文文献3000字(带中文翻译)

INTO THE STORM
FOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar. Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world’s financial firms. Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials. China’s economic juggernaut powered on. And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand. Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.
过去一年的大部分时间里,高速发展的新兴国家一直在远处观望着西方国家的金融风暴。他们的银行仅持有少量抵押资产,而类似的资产已经破坏了发达国家的金融公司。商品出口商因为原材料的高价格而日渐富有。中国不可抗拒的经济力量已然开启,而且信贷刺激的内需从布达佩斯到巴西利亚都表现得非常充足。尽管大萧条后关于西方国家受难于金融崩塌的话题与日俱增,但新兴国家似乎距离金融风暴的中心还有一段距离。
No longer. As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world’s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled. The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.
不过目前的情况不再是那样了,随着境外资本的流失和经济信心的消失,新兴国家股市暴跌(有些地区已经腰斩),本币迅速贬值。由于外国银行突然中断贷款,并且收缩了包括贸易信贷在内的基础银行服务,新兴国家的信贷市场突发混乱,并引发了一场浩劫。
Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article). That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves. Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services industry. South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks’ debt. Less well-endowed countries are asking for help. Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($6.6 billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine. Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help.
新兴国家的政府和发达国家的政府一样都在为控制损失程度而奋斗。不过对于外汇储备充足的国家来说难度会小一些:俄罗斯斥资2200亿美元重振金融服务行业;韩国政府担保了1000亿美元的银行债务。而那些储备并不充足的国家正在四处求援:匈牙利成功向欧洲央行求得了50亿欧元(约66亿美元)的生命线,同时也在同国际货币基金组织协商借款事宜,同时向国际货币基金组织求援的还有乌克兰。近一打儿的国家在向基金组织求助。
Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures. Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article). But even stalwarts are looking weaker. Figures released this week showed that China’s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.
有持续问题的国家正棋行险招:阿根廷正在将私人养老金国有化,意图阻止违约的发生。即使强有力的国家也表现出虚弱一面:本周公布的数字表明今年中国的增长率在第三季度减缓为9%,虽然增速还算快,但是与近些年的两位数增率相比缓慢了不少。
Blowing cold on credit
对信贷没兴趣
The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their economic fate will also have political consequences.
众多新兴经济的意愿并不相同,但是累计在一起的影响力却非同一般。最明显的就是这些国家的表现将会决定世界经济所面临的是一个较为缓和的衰退还是更可怕的情况。在过去18个月的全球经济增长中,新兴经济贡献了75%。但是他们的经济命运也会有一些政治后果。
In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments. But even strong regimes could suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest. More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today’s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.
在类似东欧的很多地区,金融混乱目前的打击目标是软弱的政府;但强硬的政权同样会尝到苦果。一些专家认为中国每年需要7%的增长率来阻止社会动荡的发生。总体来说,如此争端必将影响全球经济一体化的讨论。与以往数次新兴经济危机不同,这次的混乱始于发达国家,很大程度上要归咎于一体化的资本市场。一旦新兴经济崩溃,无论是货币危机还是剧烈的经济萧条,大家对于金融全球化是否属明智之举会有更多的质疑。
Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging economies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.
幸运的是上述恐怖的场景没有发生在全球的每个角落:所有的新兴经济都会减缓发展速度,有一些也必将面临深度萧条;但是更多的国家在面临当下危机的时候却拥有比以往任何时候都强壮的形式,用充足的储备、弹性的货币和强大的预算武装自己。新兴国家及发达国家良好的政策可以避免大灾难的发生。
One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world’s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect. Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reduces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.
至少有一个原因值得抱有希望:发达国家此次灾难的直接经济影响还是在可控的范围内。欧美锐减的需求对出口来说无疑是一个打击,特别是对亚洲和墨西哥。商品价格走低:原油价格与巅峰时期比较已经下降了60%,很多粮食和金属类商品跌幅更大。这两个现象有混合效果:尽管从俄罗斯到南美的商品(能源)出口企业备受打击,但却帮助了亚洲的商品(能源)进口商,并且缓和了各地对通胀的恐惧。委内瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕,也很脆弱;不过由于过去极度的繁荣,商品价格下跌目前还不会引发大范围传播的危机。
The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline. China’s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.
比商品价格更令人震惊的事情发生在金融领域。由于资产价格的下降,财富水平正在被挤压缩水。以中国房价为例,目前已经开始下跌。尽管新兴国家的消费者比发达国家的负债水平低很多,上述情况还是会挫伤国内的经济信心。在其他方面,国外银行借款骤然匮乏、对冲基金以及其他投资者逃离债券市场,这些因素给信贷增长踩了一脚急刹车。正如发达的信贷曾经强力支撑国内支出那样,信贷紧缩将意味着增长放缓。
Again, the impact will differ by country. Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world’s bank bail-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers’ group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year.
需要再次重申的是,冲击的表现会因国家的不同而有所区别。多亏中国和海湾产油国经常项目下的巨额顺差,新型经济整体还不断的向发达国家输送资本。但是80 多个国家的财政赤字已经超过GDP的5%,其中的多数是那些依靠国外救助过活得贫困国家;不过也有一些依靠私人资本的大国。对于类似土耳其和南非的国家来说,突然减缓的境外融资迫使其进行大幅调整。东欧的情况特别令人担忧,那里的不少国家赤字水平已经达到了两位数。另外,象俄罗斯这样处于顺差的国家,其银行也逐渐适应了可以轻易从外国取得的贷款,原因自然是全球金融一体化。发达国家的救助计划也许可以限制财富被挤压的水平,但资本流向新兴世界的速度无疑会减慢。国际金融研协会预测私人资本的净流量比去年回减少30%。
A wing and a prayer
飞行之翼与祈祷者
This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.
信贷紧缩必将令人生畏,不过多数新兴市场可以躲过一劫,最大的市场形势还相当不错。比较脆弱的市场可以(也应该)得到帮助。
Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending. Since the country’s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China’s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse. Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world.
在那些坚强的巨人中,中国卓然不群:手握2万亿美元的储备,经常项下的顺差状态,与国外银行罕有关联,过剩的预算给推动支出留有足够空间。鉴于国家领导人已经明确表示将不惜一切代价为经济增长减速缓冲,中国的经济增长应该会减缓到大约8%的水平,但是决不会崩溃。虽然这不足以挽救世界经济,但是该增长率将会为商品价格建底并帮到新兴世界的其他国家。
The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm. India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure. But Brazil’s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth. With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble. In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones.
其他的经济大国会受到更大的冲击,不过应该可以禁受住风暴侵袭。印度的财政赤字巨大,巴西很多公司面临巨大的外汇风险。但巴西经济已经实现多样化,同时上述两个国家拥有充足的储备来平稳过渡到缓慢的增长。俄罗斯掌握着5500亿美元的储备,应该能够阻止对卢布的抢购。至少在短期内,小国家才是最弱不禁风的。
There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments. But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference. Several emerging countries have asked America’s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will bail them out. A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend. Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma. That needs to change. The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans. Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world. Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world.
受到紧缩信贷压力进行的调整必然带来痛苦,但快速的国际援助是明智之举,因为这会让结果很不相同。一些新兴国家已经向美联储求援以缓解流动性问题;有一些则希望中国可以拯救他们与水火。更佳的求救路线莫过于国际货币基金组织,因为它掌握大量的专门知识和2500亿美元的可出借款项。不幸的是人们认为向基金借款有辱其名,国际货币基金组织应该推出更快捷、更灵活的金融工具,同时实现借贷条件最小化。过去数月中,机敏的决策驱散了发达国家的灾难。现在也正是新兴世界发生类似事情的时候了。

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