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人工智能(Artificial Intelligence) ,英文缩写为AI。它是研究、开发用于模拟、延伸和扩展人的智能的理论、方法、技术及应用系统的一门新的技术科学。以下是我精心整理的人工智能的利与弊论文的相关资料,希望对你有帮助!

摘要:自1956年人工智能诞生起,几十年的发展让其有了许多的进步,并广泛用于机器视觉,专家系统,智能搜索,定理证明,博弈,自动程序设计,智能控制,机器人学等各大领域,并且与人类生活联系越来越紧密。在安全性没有得到确切认证的情况下广泛发展人工智能是否是可行的做法,人工智能是否会战胜人类智能,现在还存在广泛的争论。本文从人工智能的概况,应用领域与人类生活的联系等方面讨论,联系有关理论,认为人工智能的发展需要在人类智能可控的范围内进行。

关键字:人工智能 超越 人类智能 退化

一.人工智能的概况

(一)人工智能的概念

人工智能(Artificial Intelligence) ,英文缩写为AI。它是研究、开发用于模拟、延伸和扩展人的智能的理论、方法、技术及应用系统的一门新的技术科学。人工智能是计算机科学的一个分支,它企图了解智能的实质,并生产出一种新的能以人类智能相似的方式作出反应的智能机器,该领域的研究包括机器人、语言识别、图像识别、自然语言处理和专家系统等。

(二)人工智能的兴起

1956年,被认为是人工智能之父的John McCarthy组织了一次学会,将许多对机器智能感兴趣的专家学者聚集在一起进行了一 个月的讨论。他请他们到 Vermont参加 " Dartmouth人工智能夏季研究会"。从那时起,这个领域被命名为 "人工智能"。1976年Newell 和Simon提出了物理符号系统假设,认为物理符号系统是表现智能行为必要和充分的条件。 Minsky从心理学的研究出发,提出了框架知识表示方法。到80年代,Minsky认为人的智能,根本不存在统一的理论。以McCarthy和Nilsson等为代表,主张用逻辑来研究人工智能,即用形式化的方法描述客观世界。逻辑学派在人工智能研究中,强调的是概念化知识表示、模型论语义、演绎推理等。 McCarthy主张任何事物都可以用统一的逻辑框架来表示,在常识推理中以非单调逻辑为中心。传统的人工智能研究思路是“自上而下”式的,它的目标是让机器模仿人,认为人脑的思维活动可以通过一些公式和规则

来定义,因此希望通过把人类的思维方式翻译成程序语言输入机器,来使机器有朝一日产生像人类一样的思维能力。这一理论指导了早期人工智能的研究。

(三)人工智能的发展状况

1956年,Samuel研制了跳棋程序,它在1959年击败了Samuel本人

1959年美籍华人学者、洛克菲勒大学教授王浩 自动定理证明

1976年 “四色定理”的证明

1977年,曾是赫伯特·西蒙的研究生、斯坦福大学青年学者费根鲍姆

(E.Feigenbaum),在第五届国际人工智能大会上提出了”知识工程”的概念 1976年美国斯坦福大学肖特列夫开发医学专家系统MYCIN

80年代,AI 被引入了市场,并显示出实用价值

1997年 “深蓝”

2011年9月,在印度古瓦哈蒂举行的电脑科技展上,一个“聪明机器(Cleverbot)”成功过近800名观众,使他们难以分辨对话出自真人还是电脑软件。当日参加聊天试验的30名志愿者被安排进行4分钟在线文字聊天,聊天的对象可能是“聪明机器人”,也可能是一个真人。他们的对话内容展示在一个

大屏幕上,1334名普通观众观看对话内容后进行投票。结果,超过59.3%的观众 把人与“聪明机器人”的对话误认成人与人之间的对话“聪明机器人”的发明 者、英国人罗洛·卡彭特很高兴地告诉记者:“过一半以上观众,你可以说聪明机器人算是通过了"图灵测试"

二.人们对人工智能的依靠

(一)人工智能主要应用领域

目前人工智能主要的应用领域在机器视觉(指纹识别,人脸识别,视网膜识别,虹膜识别,掌纹识别),专家系统,智能搜索,定理证明,博弈,自动程序设计,智能控制,机器人学,语言和图像理解,遗传编程等。

(二)人们生活与人工智能的密切关系

从智能手机、自动驾驶汽车到医疗机器人,人工智能革命已经到来。人工智能让互联网搜索更加灵敏;将文本从一种语言翻译成另一种语言;在拥挤的交通

中推荐最畅通的线路;帮助识别信用卡„„虽然很多时候我们甚至没有意识到它的存在,但我们的生活却因它悄悄改变。

在美国硅谷,尼古拉斯·亚宁早上起来准备去上班,到公司需要40分钟车程。这位在Google工作的技术员走向他的Lexus汽车。汽车即将驶上加州拥挤的高速路,此时他的“司机”———汽车开始掌控大局。亚宁的这辆车是Google正在实验的自动驾驶汽车,安装有复杂的人工智能技术,使得他可以放松地坐在驾驶座上充当乘客。

在马萨诸塞州贝德福特的iRobot公司,一名参观者看着5英尺高的机器人爱娃小心翼翼地行走在大厅里,躲避着周围的障碍物———包括人类。今年年底它将开始自己的第一份真正工作———远程医疗助手,让数千英里之外的专家通过安装在它“头”上的视频屏幕给医院的病人看病。当医生准备看望下一位病人时,他只需点击电脑地图上的新位置。爱娃根据地图找到并赶往下一个病房,它还会自己乘坐电梯。

在华盛顿普尔曼,华盛顿州立大学的研究者们正在给“智能”房间安装上感应器,使之能够根据需要自动调节房间的光线,监控住户的一切活动,包括他们每天睡眠多少小时,锻炼多少分钟。听上去有点像是被监禁,但事实上,倡导者们认为这样的技术就像一个富有爱心的保姆:智能房屋可以帮助老年人,尤其是有身体或智力障碍的老人过上独立的生活。

从今年夏天在火星登陆的好奇号太空探测器,到仪表盘能够与人对话的汽车,再到智能手机,人工智能正在改变我们的生活———有时候以一种显而易见的方式,更多的时候,我们甚至没有意识到它的存在。人工智能让互联网搜索更加灵敏;将文本从一种语言翻译成另一种语言;在拥挤的交通中推荐最畅通的线路;帮助识别信用卡;告诉驾驶员什么时候越过了道路中央的分道线。

甚至连烤面包机也即将加入人工智能革命。你可以将一个面包放进去,用智能手机拍张照片,手机将把所有需要的信息传送给烤面包机,指导它如何将面包烤得恰到好处。

从某个方便说,人工智能几乎无处不在,从控制数码相机的光圈和快门速度的智能感应器,到干衣机中的温度和湿度探测器,再到汽车中的自动泊车功能。更复杂的应用还在源源不断地走出实验室。

三.人工智能的弊端

(一)关于人工智能超越人类智能的假说

人工智能只可以作为人类智能的补充,但是人工智能的发展速度远远超过人类智能的发展速度,即根据进化论来说人工智能的进化速度比人类智能进化得快许多。由于人工智能起步较低,故现在和人类智能有一定差距,但其表现出了在局部超越了人类智能的现状,让人有理由相信人工智能超越人类智能只是时间上的问题。

人工智能超越人类智能论据有:一是达尔文进化论;二是类比人类的创造性即由于人类智能的不断探索欲会把自己独有创造赋予人工智能,这会导致人工智能战胜人类智能;三是“量变质变定律”人工智能不断的在某些领域超越人类智能,最终将在质上战胜人类智能。

其代表人物有四川大学社科系教授王黔玲从世界观角度提出的“人工智能将超越人类智能”的论断。华东师范大学哲学系教授郦全民认为在好奇心的驱使下,在不前进就会落后的“象棋皇后”效应的作用下,人类不会停止对比自己先进的更高的智能系统的探索。而进化法则又不可违背,将使得进化之链朝着超越人类的方向发展。因此地球上出现超越人类的高智能物种是进化的必然。代维也大胆预测“人工智能将在不远的将来战胜人类智能,但会有自己的存在方式,不会对人类构成威胁”。约翰·麦卡锡——人工智能之父认为“没有理由相信我们不能写出一个能使电脑像人一样思考的公式。”斯蒂芬·霍金 说过“在我看来,如果非常复杂的化学分子可以在人体内活动并使人类产生智慧的话,那么太阳复杂的电子电路也可以使计算机以智能化的方式采取行动。”德国班贝克大学心理学教授德尔纳认为“有灵魂的机器是存在的。”

(二)人类退化的假说

从智能手机、自动驾驶汽车到医疗机器人,人工智能革命已经到来。人工智能让互联网搜索更加灵敏;将文本从一种语言翻译成另一种语言;在拥挤的交通中

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推荐最畅通的线路;帮助识别信用卡等。虽然很多时候我们甚至没有意识到它的存在,但我们的生活却因它悄悄改变。人们总是趋向于安逸的生活,人工智能的出现满足了人们许多的需求,这会导致人们满足于享受当前的生活而忘记许多自己的本能。根据达尔文的进化学说,那些我们不在经常使用的本能会在生物的繁衍中逐渐的退化消失。人工智能化的发展,我们的衣食住行都可以有简单的解决方法,并且也越来越为人们所依赖。就像过去几千年我们没有电话手机,一样可以有自己的通讯方式,可是现在手机发展不过几十年,就没有几个人能离得开手机了。试想一下日益进入我们生活中的人工智能,等你习惯后还能离得开吗。如果有了人工智能,你什么都不用自己动手,那经过生物衍变,人类的未来还能剩下什么呢。经过退化衍变的人类还有什么能力呢。

四.结语

现阶段人工智能在专家系统,智能搜索,定理证明,博弈,自动程序设计,智能控制,机器人学等方面都有许多的应用,并且范围越来越广,虽然看似都是促进科学发展的,但是我们得注意其使用的度,就像克隆的应用一样,具有双面性的东西在发展时都应该慎重考虑。人工智能智能作为一种工具被人类智能限定在一定的范围里发展,才能在保证其安全的条件下最大程度的为人类发挥作用。 参考文献:

【1】史忠植. 高级人工智能(第二版). 科学出版社, 2006.

【2】玛格丽特·博登,人工智能哲学,上海译文出版社2001-11-01

【3】 Russell S., Peter Norvig,人工智能——一种现代方法(第二版)北京:人民邮电出版社, 2004 【4】史忠植. 智能主体及其应用.科学出版社,2000.

【5】 叶世伟, 史忠植 译. 神经网络原理(Simon Haykin: Neural Networks) . 机械工业出版社,2004.

【6】蔡自兴,徐光佑,人工智能及其应用(第三版). 北京:清华大学出版社,2003年

【7】卢格尔,人工智能,机械工业出版社,2009-03-01

【8】CarolynAbate,人工智能改变生活,南方都市报,2012-09-30

【9】门泽尔,机器人的未来,上海辞书出版社,2002年

【10】钱学森,关于思维科学,上海人民出版社,1986

【11】钱铁云,人工智能是否可以超越人类智能?,科学社会与辩证法,2004

【12】代维,人工智能VS人类智能。20年后谁称雄,青年探索,2002

【13】姜长阳,人类正在退化,自然辨证法研究,2000年11期

只要谈及科技对人类的意义,有一个词语出语率颇高――“双刃剑”。即科技在给人们带来便捷、舒适和高质量生活的同时,也不可避免地会带来诸多弊端。在这种种弊端中,有看得见的,如环境污染;而更多的则是看不见的,如科技对文化的冲击。

有关科技的利与弊,近年来舆论界一直争论不休,莫衷一是。这一现象也直接反映在了高考语文试题中――连续几年的高考作文都涉及到这一话题,且有逐年增多的趋势。

据统计,在近几年高考作文中讨论最多的话题是“科技对文化(尤其是传统文化)的冲击”――即科技会不会对文化构成冲击?又会构成什么样的冲击?如2012年高考湖北卷作文题就提供了这样一则材料:

语文课堂上,老师在讲到杜甫《春望》“烽火连三月,家书抵万金”时,不无感慨地说:“可惜啊,我们现在已经很难见到家书了,书信这种形式恐怕要消失了。”学生甲:“没有啊,我上大学的表哥就经常给我写信,我觉得这种交流方式是不可替代的。”学生乙:“信息技术这么发达,打电话、发短信、写邮件更便捷,谁还用笔写信啊?”学生丙:“即使不用笔写信,也不能说明书信消失了,只不过是书信的形式变了。”学生丁:“要是这样说的话,改变的又何止是书信?社会发展了,科技进步了,很多东西都在悄然改变。”……

诚然,电话、短信、邮件在带给我们方便、快捷的同时,也消减了我们生活中的诗意。可是我们不妨思量一下,“云中谁寄锦书来”或许能带给我们诗意和遐想,可在“烽火连三月”的情况下,恐怕还是一条快捷的短信更让人放心。因此,我们要充分考虑到两者的得失,对如何处理好科技与文化的关系作出深刻的反思:是为了保存传统的美好而抱残守缺,还是为了方便快捷就抛弃传统?是在传统的树干上嫁接上时尚的枝条,还是在崭新的文化中打上旧补丁?笔者想:应该思考这类问题的绝不仅仅是我们的中学生,更有我们的决策者、我们的专家,甚至我们每一个普普通通的公民。反思永远强于抱怨,只有总结反思,才能使我们的下一步走得更好,走得更稳健,从而一步步接近我们理想中的伊甸园。

与此一脉相承的是2014年高考广东卷的作文题。所不同的是广东卷的材料放弃了书信与手机,取而代之的是黑白胶片与数码技术:

黑白胶片的时代,照片很少,只记录下人生的几个瞬间,在家人一次次的翻看中,它能唤起许多永不褪色的记忆。但照片渐渐泛黄,日益模糊。数码技术的时代,照片很多,记录着日常生活的点点滴滴,可以随时上传到网络与人分享。它从不泛黄,永不模糊,但在快速浏览与频繁更新中,值得珍惜的“点滴”也可能被稀释。

黑白胶片与数码技术就像尺素与短信、马车与高铁、书法与“键谈”、远足与网游、品茗与快餐,品评它们又岂是一个“利”字或“弊”字可以概括的?这当中,掺和有科技的因素,有文化的因素,有传统的因素,有心理习惯的因素……其实,人们最希望拥有的是现代科技的便捷加上传统文化的醇香,而这恰如鱼与熊掌,兼而得之实在不易。

高考作文涉及到的又一方面的话题是“科技对传统审美观念的冲击”。如2014年高考辽宁卷作文题提供了这样一则材料:

夜晚,祖孙二人倚窗远眺。“瞧万家灯火,大街通明,霓虹闪耀,真美!”男孩说,“要是没有电,没有现代科技,没有高楼林立,上哪儿看去?”老人颔首,又沉思摇头:“可惜满天繁星没有了。沧海桑田,转眼之间啊!当年那些祖先,山洞边点燃篝火,看月亮初升,星汉灿烂,他们欣赏的也许才是美景。”

读罢这则材料,笔者觉得:如果“当年那些祖先”能够“穿越”回来,即便他们依然认为篝火、明月、星汉是大自然中最美丽的景观,但他们还乐意栖居在山洞里燃着篝火欣赏那满天繁星吗?现代科技早已潜入到了人们的灵魂深处,纵然我们会偶尔生出几许怀旧的情愫,那不过是我们在内心珍存的原始记忆陨落时的惆怅,纵然我们心向往之,也未必愿意返璞归真。在现代社会中,像陶渊明、梭罗这些真正倾心于自然的隐者已经很难寻觅了。

高考作文所涉及的有关科技的材料,还触及到了近乎于“科幻”的话题。如2014年高考天津卷的作文材料,讲的是一则带有几分科幻色彩的故事,揭示了现代科技给人带来的“荒诞感”:

也许将来有这么一天,我们发明了一种智慧芯片,有了它,任何人都能古今中外无一不知,天文地理无所不晓。比如说,你在心里默念一声“物理”,人类有史以来有关物理的一切公式、定律便纷纷浮现出来,比老师讲的还多,比书本印的还全。你逛秦淮河时,脱口一句“旧时王谢堂前燕”,旁边卖雪糕的老大娘就接茬说“飞入寻常百姓家”,还慈祥地告诉你,这首诗的作者是刘禹锡,这时一个金发碧眼的外国小女孩抢着说,诗名《乌衣巷》,出自《全唐诗》365卷4117页……这将是怎样的情形啊!

不知道是否真的有那么一天,不知道这样的情形是否真的会出现,也不知道这样的情形出现究竟是喜是悲。

平心而论,科技带给我们的永远是利大于弊,否则我们绝不会视之为“第一生产力”,也不会有那么多仁人志士为科技献身,为科技发展不遗余力了。我们现在要探究的是在发展科技的同时怎样将它的负面效应降到最低,乃至使之成为促进文化传承与发展的助力;而不是因噎废食,视科技为文化的宿敌,甚至视若洪水猛兽――而承担这一重任的主力,将会是今天走上考场的一代青年。从这一意义上看,让他们先写这样的文章真的很有价值。想必“科技”这一话题在随后的高考作文中仍会有一定的地位。

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敏芳在上海

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the intelligence of machines and the branch of computer science which aims to create it. Textbooks define the field as "the study and design of intelligent agents,"[1] where an intelligent agent is a system that perceives its environment and takes actions which maximize its chances of success.[2] John McCarthy, who coined the term in 1956,[3] defines it as "the science and engineering of making intelligent machines."[4]The field was founded on the claim that a central property of human beings, intelligence—the sapience of Homo sapiens—can be so precisely described that it can be simulated by a machine.[5] This raises philosophical issues about the nature of the mind and limits of scientific hubris, issues which have been addressed by myth, fiction and philosophy since antiquity.[6] Artificial intelligence has been the subject of breathtaking optimism,[7] has suffered stunning setbacks[8] and, today, has become an essential part of the technology industry, providing the heavy lifting for many of the most difficult problems in computer science.[9]AI research is highly technical and specialized, deeply divided into subfields that often fail to communicate with each other.[10] Subfields have grown up around particular institutions, the work of individual researchers, the solution of specific problems, longstanding differences of opinion about how AI should be done and the application of widely differing tools. The central problems of AI include such traits as reasoning, knowledge, planning, learning, communication, perception and the ability to move and manipulate objects.[11] General intelligence (or "strong AI") is still a long-term goal of (some) research.[12]Thinking machines and artificial beings appear in Greek myths, such as Talos of Crete, the golden robots of Hephaestus and Pygmalion's Galatea.[13] Human likenesses believed to have intelligence were built in every major civilization: animated statues were worshipped in Egypt and Greece[14] and humanoid automatons were built by Yan Shi,[15] Hero of Alexandria,[16] Al-Jazari[17] and Wolfgang von Kempelen.[18] It was also widely believed that artificial beings had been created by Jābir ibn Hayyān,[19] Judah Loew[20] and Paracelsus.[21] By the 19th and 20th centuries, artificial beings had become a common feature in fiction, as in Mary Shelley's Frankenstein or Karel Čapek's R.U.R. (Rossum's Universal Robots).[22] Pamela McCorduck argues that all of these are examples of an ancient urge, as she describes it, "to forge the gods".[6] Stories of these creatures and their fates discuss many of the same hopes, fears and ethical concerns that are presented by artificial intelligence.The problem of simulating (or creating) intelligence has been broken down into a number of specific sub-problems. These consist of particular traits or capabilities that researchers would like an intelligent system to display. The traits described below have received the most attention.[11][edit] Deduction, reasoning, problem solvingEarly AI researchers developed algorithms that imitated the step-by-step reasoning that human beings use when they solve puzzles, play board games or make logical deductions.[39] By the late 80s and 90s, AI research had also developed highly successful methods for dealing with uncertain or incomplete information, employing concepts from probability and economics.[40]For difficult problems, most of these algorithms can require enormous computational resources — most experience a "combinatorial explosion": the amount of memory or computer time required becomes astronomical when the problem goes beyond a certain size. The search for more efficient problem solving algorithms is a high priority for AI research.[41]Human beings solve most of their problems using fast, intuitive judgments rather than the conscious, step-by-step deduction that early AI research was able to model.[42] AI has made some progress at imitating this kind of "sub-symbolic" problem solving: embodied approaches emphasize the importance of sensorimotor skills to higher reasoning; neural net research attempts to simulate the structures inside human and animal brains that gives rise to this skill.General intelligenceMain articles: Strong AI and AI-completeMost researchers hope that their work will eventually be incorporated into a machine with general intelligence (known as strong AI), combining all the skills above and exceeding human abilities at most or all of them.[12] A few believe that anthropomorphic features like artificial consciousness or an artificial brain may be required for such a project.[74]Many of the problems above are considered AI-complete: to solve one problem, you must solve them all. For example, even a straightforward, specific task like machine translation requires that the machine follow the author's argument (reason), know what is being talked about (knowledge), and faithfully reproduce the author's intention (social intelligence). Machine translation, therefore, is believed to be AI-complete: it may require strong AI to be done as well as humans can do it.[75][edit] ApproachesThere is no established unifying theory or paradigm that guides AI research. Researchers disagree about many issues.[76] A few of the most long standing questions that have remained unanswered are these: should artificial intelligence simulate natural intelligence, by studying psychology or neurology? Or is human biology as irrelevant to AI research as bird biology is to aeronautical engineering?[77] Can intelligent behavior be described using simple, elegant principles (such as logic or optimization)? Or does it necessarily require solving a large number of completely unrelated problems?[78] Can intelligence be reproduced using high-level symbols, similar to words and ideas? Or does it require "sub-symbolic" processing?[79][edit] Cybernetics and brain simulationMain articles: Cybernetics and Computational neuroscience There is no consensus on how closely the brain should be simulated.In the 1940s and 1950s, a number of researchers explored the connection between neurology, information theory, and cybernetics. Some of them built machines that used electronic networks to exhibit rudimentary intelligence, such as W. Grey Walter's turtles and the Johns Hopkins Beast. Many of these researchers gathered for meetings of the Teleological Society at Princeton University and the Ratio Club in England.[24] By 1960, this approach was largely abandoned, although elements of it would be revived in the 1980s.How can one determine if an agent is intelligent? In 1950, Alan Turing proposed a general procedure to test the intelligence of an agent now known as the Turing test. This procedure allows almost all the major problems of artificial intelligence to be tested. However, it is a very difficult challenge and at present all agents fail.Artificial intelligence can also be evaluated on specific problems such as small problems in chemistry, hand-writing recognition and game-playing. Such tests have been termed subject matter expert Turing tests. Smaller problems provide more achievable goals and there are an ever-increasing number of positive results.The broad classes of outcome for an AI test are:Optimal: it is not possible to perform better Strong super-human: performs better than all humans Super-human: performs better than most humans Sub-human: performs worse than most humans For example, performance at draughts is optimal,[143] performance at chess is super-human and nearing strong super-human,[144] and performance at many everyday tasks performed by humans is sub-human.A quite different approach is based on measuring machine intelligence through tests which are developed from mathematical definitions of intelligence. Examples of this kind of tests start in the late nineties devising intelligence tests using notions from Kolmogorov Complexity and compression [145] [146]. Similar definitions of machine intelligence have been put forward by Marcus Hutter in his book Universal Artificial Intelligence (Springer 2005), which was further developed by Legg and Hutter [147]. Mathematical definitions have, as one advantage, that they could be applied to nonhuman intelligences and in the absence of human testers.AI is a common topic in both science fiction and in projections about the future of technology and society. The existence of an artificial intelligence that rivals human intelligence raises difficult ethical issues and the potential power of the technology inspires both hopes and fears.Mary Shelley's Frankenstein,[160] considers a key issue in the ethics of artificial intelligence: if a machine can be created that has intelligence, could it also feel? If it can feel, does it have the same rights as a human being? The idea also appears in modern science fiction: the film Artificial Intelligence: A.I. considers a machine in the form of a small boy which has been given the ability to feel human emotions, including, tragically, the capacity to suffer. This issue, now known as "robot rights", is currently being considered by, for example, California's Institute for the Future,[161] although many critics believe that the discussion is premature.[162]Another issue explored by both science fiction writers and futurists is the impact of artificial intelligence on society. In fiction, AI has appeared as a servant (R2D2 in Star Wars), a law enforcer (K.I.T.T. "Knight Rider"), a comrade (Lt. Commander Data in Star Trek), a conqueror (The Matrix), a dictator (With Folded Hands), an exterminator (Terminator, Battlestar Galactica), an extension to human abilities (Ghost in the Shell) and the saviour of the human race (R. Daneel Olivaw in the Foundation Series). Academic sources have considered such consequences as: a decreased demand for human labor,[163] the enhancement of human ability or experience,[164] and a need for redefinition of human identity and basic values.[165]Several futurists argue that artificial intelligence will transcend the limits of progress and fundamentally transform humanity. Ray Kurzweil has used Moore's law (which describes the relentless exponential improvement in digital technology with uncanny accuracy) to calculate that desktop computers will have the same processing power as human brains by the year 2029, and that by 2045 artificial intelligence will reach a point where it is able to improve itself at a rate that far exceeds anything conceivable in the past, a scenario that science fiction writer Vernor Vinge named the "technological singularity".[164] Edward Fredkin argues that "artificial intelligence is the next stage in evolution,"[166] an idea first proposed by Samuel Butler's "Darwin among the Machines" (1863), and expanded upon by George Dyson in his book of the same name in 1998. Several futurists and science fiction writers have predicted that human beings and machines will merge in the future into cyborgs that are more capable and powerful than either. This idea, called transhumanism, which has roots in Aldous Huxley and Robert Ettinger, is now associated with robot designer Hans Moravec, cyberneticist Kevin Warwick and inventor Ray Kurzweil.[164] Transhumanism has been illustrated in fiction as well, for example in the manga Ghost in the Shell and the science fiction series Dune. Pamela McCorduck writes that these scenarios are expressions of the ancient human desire to, as she calls it, "forge the gods."[6]

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