柳叶刀医学杂志人口预测

The only way the United States can remain the world's most prosperous, powerful country is by embracing immigration. That's the inescapable conclusion from a published on Tuesday in the Lancet that predicts the world's population will peak far sooner than anticipated, and start shrinking before the end of this century. 美国要保持世界上最繁荣，最强大的国家的唯一途径就是拥抱移民。这是《柳叶刀》周二发表的一份不可避免的结论，该结论预测世界人口的峰值将比预期的要早得多，并且将在本世纪末开始萎缩。 There is, however, no guarantee that the US will embrace immigration, even to save itself. Domestic politics, currently inflamed by divisive nativist leaders, have turned immigration into a contested topic. A country that rose to historic heights of influence and prosperity by welcoming immigrants, is now led by a President who has weaponized the issue with unfathomable cruelty. 但是，不能保证美国会接受移民，甚至是为了挽救自己。分裂的本土主义者领导人当前激怒的国内政治已将移民问题变成一个有争议的话题。一个通过欢迎移民升至历史高位的影响力和繁荣的国家，现在由总统领导，他以残酷的残酷手段为这一问题提供了武器。 One example: At this moment, hundreds of migrant families held in detention facilities face the of whether to let their children be released to third parties, or stay together in detention. This awful decision comes as the result of court order last month that called for the children's release in light of the coronavirus pandemic -- and it is essentially a new version of the family separation policy that tore apart  earlier in the Trump administration. 一个例子：目前，被关押在拘留设施中的数百个移民家庭面临着是让其子女被释放给第三方还是留在拘留中的问题。这个可怕的决定是上个月法院命令要求根据冠状病毒大流行将儿童释放的结果-这本质上是家庭分离政策的新版本，该政策在特朗普政府早些时候已经瓦解了。 Such heartless political measures flout America's founding principles -- but are also out of step with public opinion on immigration: an overwhelming majority of Americans -- , according to a recent 2020 Gallup poll- say it is good for the country. The prospect of falling birth rates predicted by study -- from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine -- may be a thumb on the scale in favor of more immigration. After all, businesses will need workers. Even the military will likely feel the pressure of contracting numbers of people of military age. 盖洛普（Gallup）最近进行的2020年民意测验显示，这种无情的政治措施fl视了美国的建国原则-但也与公众对移民的看法不符（绝大多数美国人）-这对美国有利。华盛顿大学医学院的健康指标与评估研究所的研究预测，出生率下降的前景可能是支持更多移民的规模。毕竟，企业将需要工人。即使是军人，也可能会感受到与军人人数签约的压力。 The new study shows how far off the mark earlier assumptions about exploding population growth fell. Some among you, my dear readers, may remember when intellectuals were gripped by the fear of a "Malthusian catastrophe," fear that population growth would outpace our ability to feed ourselves. But it turns out that , the 18th century economist and demographer, got it all wrong. 这项新的研究表明，先前关于人口爆炸性增长的假设与预期相差甚远。亲爱的读者，你们中间的某些人可能会记得知识分子被“马尔萨斯灾难”的恐惧所束缚，他们担心人口增长将超过我们养活自己的能力。但是事实证明，18世纪的经济学家和人口统计学家完全错了。 Not only did agricultural advances undercut his thesis, it turns out the world's population will start contracting before long, with powerful economic, geopolitical and environmental implications. 农业的发展不仅削弱了他的论点，而且事实证明，世界人口将很快开始收缩，这将对经济，地缘政治和环境产生重大影响。 According to the study, population will climb from the current billion to billion by 2064, but that will be the end of the increases. By 2100, it will shrink by almost a billion people, to billion. The downward trend, a revolution triggered by the education of women, who choose to have fewer babies, will affect almost every country -- 183 out of 195 -- on Earth. 根据这项研究，到2064年，人口将从目前的78亿增加到97亿，但这将是增长的终点。到2100年，它将减少近十亿人口，达到88亿。下降趋势是由妇女的教育引发的一场革命，妇女选择减少生育，这将影响地球上几乎每个国家-195个国家中的183个。 To keep the population unchanged, women must have an average of babies, the replacement fertility rate, the study found. The rate has nosedived from in 1990 to last year, and,  is continuing to crash. 研究发现，为了保持人口不变，妇女必须平均有个婴儿，即替代生育率。失业率从1990年的下降到去年的，并且继续崩溃。 Adding to the demographic transformation, medical advances will extend life expectancy, producing a lopsided age distribution, with growing numbers of old people and diminishing numbers of young, working-age citizens. 随着人口结构的变化，医学的进步将延长人们的预期寿命，造成年龄分布的偏差，老年人的数量不断增加，年轻的适龄工作的公民数量正在减少。 The massive population revision from recent estimates, has repercussions that boggle the mind. 根据最近的估计，大规模的人口修订产生了令人震惊的后果。 On the positive side, the strain on resources will diminish. Perhaps Earth can at last catch a break. But picture an economy where the number of retired people grows far faster than the number of productive workers, who have to keep the economy moving and pay enough taxes to support growing health care and retirement costs. Who's going to do all the work? Who's going to pay all the taxes? Who's going to keep countries competitive, strong enough to defend from potentially aggressive rivals? 从积极的一面来看，对资源的压力将减少。也许地球终于可以休息了。但是，想象一下一个经济体，退休人口的增长远远快于生产工人的数量，后者必须保持经济发展并支付足够的税款，以支持不断增长的医疗保健和退休成本。谁来做所有的工作？谁来支付所有税款？谁将保持国家的竞争力，强大到足以抵御潜在的侵略性竞争对手？ The answer lies in expanding the workforce. That can be done by coaxing older workers to remain productive and by encouraging more women to enter the workforce. But that only goes so far. The obvious solution is to allow workers from countries where the population continues to grow or exceeds job opportunities, to make up for shortfalls. That is, immigration. 答案在于扩大劳动力。要做到这一点，可以诱使年长的工人保持生产力，并鼓励更多的妇女加入劳动大军。但这只是到目前为止。显而易见的解决方案是允许人口持续增长或超过工作机会的国家的工人弥补短缺。即移民。 Shrinking populations are disastrous for economic growth, not only because of the obvious labor shortages, but because they reduce consumption. They reduce the need for building factories, for expanding infrastructure. Lower demand can send economies into a tailspin of deflation, or simply produce stubborn stagnation. 人口减少对经济增长而言是灾难性的，这不仅是因为明显的劳动力短缺，还因为它们减少了消费。它们减少了建造工厂和扩展基础设施的需求。较低的需求可能使经济陷入通缩的泥潭，或者仅仅是造成顽固的停滞。 The of the looming crisis -- should it happen as predicted -- is astonishing. In  the population will shrink by more than half, others will contract nearly as much. Japan will go from 128 million in 2017 to 60 million in 2100; Italy from 61 to 31 million, Spain from 46 to 23 million, South Korea from 53 to 27 million. China, America's principal economic and geostrategic rival, will shrink from the current billion to 730 million, the study predicts. 迫在眉睫的危机-如果如预期的那样发生-令人震惊。人口将减少一半以上，其他人口将减少近一半。日本将从2017年的亿增加到2100年的6000万；意大利从61增至3100万，西班牙从46增至2300万，韩国从53增至2700万。研究预测，作为美国主要的经济和地缘战略对手，中国将从目前的14亿缩减至亿。 And the US? The study optimistically predicts that the collapse in fertility rates in the US will be offset by -- that's right -- immigration. That infusion of new muscle, new talent and new stamina, has the power not only to preserve America's preeminent position on the global stage, but also to reverse the current trend that has 而美国呢？这项研究乐观地预测，美国生育率的下降将被（正确的）移民所抵消。注入新的力量，新的才能和新的耐力不仅有能力维护美国在全球舞台上的卓越地位，而且有能力扭转目前的趋势。 The study forecasts that the US economy will regain its top spot by 2098, as China shrinks and the US thrives, partly due to a constant refreshing of its population. 该研究预测，随着中国的萎缩和美国的蓬勃发展，美国经济将在2098年重新夺回榜首，部分原因是其人口的不断更新。 If the US is need of an example of how crucial this is, it can look at Japan, where a declining population has caused economic stagnation. The  have tried to solve this by enticing women into the workforce, but it's not enough. Now the government is inviting  to try to replace nonexistent Japanese. 如果美国需要一个举足轻重的例子，可以看看日本，那里人口的减少导致了经济停滞。他们试图通过诱使女性加入劳动力市场来解决这一问题，但这还不够。现在，政府正在邀请尝试取代不存在的日本人。 Italy can also serve as a cautionary tale. It didn't need the Lancet to see the crisis. The number of working-age Italians has been crashing for years. The crisis was temporarily stalled by immigrants, but a right-wing government built its political support by attacking migrants, and now Italy is entering a  whose solution will not please nativist demagogues. 意大利也可以作为一个警示故事。不需要柳叶刀就可以看到这场危机。工作年龄的意大利人的数量已经崩溃了多年。这场危机暂时因移民而陷入停顿，但是右翼政府通过袭击移民来建立其政治支持，现在意大利正在进入一种解决方案，其解决方案不会取悦本土主义者。 The result will be increased friction over immigration, with the arguments of immigration advocates bolstered by demographers, economists and a business community anxious to see consumption increase and workers available. 结果将是移民问题上的摩擦加剧，人口统计学家，经济学家和工商界都支持移民拥护者的论点，他们急于看到消费增加和有工人可用。 The present may be blazing with the demagogues' sturm und drang about keeping immigrants out. But the future belongs to the country that welcomes them. 目前，可能是煽动者对将移民拒之门外的猛烈抨击。但是未来属于欢迎他们的国家。 *V*这里是小泡哥打造的英语学习环境,学英语,就要泡在英语中。在这里，小泡哥带你点点滴滴积累英文，让我们泡在英语中，一起学习，一起进步。