中国社会科学院院报 陈佳贵 黄群慧 从经济发展角度看，长期以来我国的基本国情一直是农业大国。但是，在经过几十年的建设特别是改革开放20余年高速工业化进程以后，到20世纪末21世纪初，我国已经成为名副其实的工业大国。 一、各种证据表明，我国的基本经济国情已经从农业大国转为工业大国 第＿，我国形成了庞大的工业生产能力，工业主要产品产量居世界前列。迄今为止，我国已经在能源、冶金、化工、建材、机械设备和通讯设备制造、交通运输设备制造及各种消费品等工业主要领域，形成了庞大的生产能力。我国主要工业产品，如煤炭、钢铁、发电、原油、水泥、化肥、化学纤维、棉布、糖和电视机等，其产量已经居世界前列.其中，2000年化学纤维产量居世界第2位；2002年，煤炭、钢铁、水泥、化肥、棉布和电视机产量居世界首位、发电量居世界第2位、糖产量居世界第3位、原油产量居世界第5位。目前，我国工业产值和增加值总量，仅低于美国、日本和德国。考虑到工业技术水平等因素，虽然我国还够不上真正意义的“世界工厂”，但从工业产品生产数量看，毋庸置疑，我国已经是一个工业大国。 第二，工业经济在整个国民经济中已占主体地位。1952年，第﹁产业（农、林、牧、渔）在国内生产总值中的比重为，在国民经济中占主体地位，到1980年下降为，2003年进一步下降到。与此对应，1952年第二产业（工业和建筑业）在国内生产总值中的比重为，到1980年上升为；2003年，第二产业生产总值达到亿元，占国内生产总值的，其中工业生产总值亿元，占国内生产总值的。按照每天创造的财富计算，2003年工业为亿元，为第一产业亿元的倍，为第三产业亿元的倍。这表明，经过50余年工业化进程，尤其是改革开放以来20余年高速工业化进程，现在在我国国内生产总值构成中，工业几乎占有半壁江山，我国国民财富的主要来源是工业，国民经济结构已经实现从农业经济为主体到工业经济为主体的转变。虽然从人口的城乡比例看，我国仍是一个农业人口大国，2003年乡村人口和城镇人口比例为∶，但如果与1978年该比例为∶相比，考虑到现在亿的总人口，应该说，这25年城乡人口比例的巨大的“量”的变化，已经能够反映出工业经济主导的社会经济结构的“质”的变化。 第三，我国已经成为工业对外贸易大国，在出口商品总额中，工业制成品出口占绝大部分，工业品国际竞争力得到显著提高。1980年，我国进出口总额仅为亿元人民币，贸易依存度为。到2002年，我国进出口总额已经达到亿元人民币，贸易依存度为；我国进出口贸易总额占世界进出口贸易总额的，跃居世界第6位。2003年，我国进出口总额升至亿人民币，贸易依存度约为；我国进出口贸易总额占世界进出口贸易总额的，位居世界第4位，仅排在美国、德国和日本之后。2004年前11个月，我国外贸进出口总额达亿美元，同比增长，进口、出口总额分别跃过5000亿美元关口，累计实现贸易顺差亿美元，全年外贸进出口总额将达到万亿美元，位居世界第3位。这些数据表明，中国已经是一个对外贸易大国。在对外贸易规模扩大的同时，我国贸易结构也发生了巨大的变化。在1980年，我国出口商品中，初级产品出口额占出口商品总额的，工业制成品出口额占出口总额的。而到2000年以后，工业制成品的该项比例上升到90%以上，2001、2002、2003三年的数据分别为、、；初级产品的该项比例则相应下降到10%以下。不仅如此，工业品国际竞争力也得到显著改善和提高，自1994年以后，中国工业制成品的贸易竞争指数一直为正，1995~2003年中国工业制成品的贸易竞争指数分别为、、、、、、、、，而初级产品的贸易竞争指数自1995年一直为负。 第四，中国工业化进程已经到中期阶段，基本完成了工业数量扩张的任务，不仅彻底结束了利用工农产品“剪刀差”来支持工业发展的局面，而且国家开始利用工商业发展来“反哺”农业。根据钱纳里等关于经济发展阶段的6个变动时期的划分，我国多数学者实证研究表明，中国工业化的进程总体上属于工业化中期阶段。对于中国这样一个具有13亿人口的大国而言，进入工业化中期，意味着已经具有了庞大的工业总量。而工业生产技术特别是加工工艺的广泛扩散，企业间价格竞争日趋激烈，利润日趋平均化，产业集中化步伐加快，这些现象也表明中国工业发展已经完成了数量扩张，开始呈现出工业化中后期所具有的提升工业增长质量的特征。社会主义国家工业化初期利用工农产品“剪刀差”支持工业快速发展的局面已经结束，国家财政用于补贴农业、解决“三农”问题的支出逐年增多。2000年，国家来自工商业的税收亿元，占全部税收的；农业税收亿元，只占全部税收的；而同期国家财政用于农业的支出为亿元。2001、2002、2003年，国家来自农业的各项税收分别为亿元、亿元和亿元，而用于农业的支出分别为亿元、亿元和亿元。2004年，国家在吉林、黑龙江两个粮食主产省先行免征农业税改革试点，河北、内蒙古、辽宁、江苏、安徽、江西、山东、河南、湖北、湖南、四川11个粮食主产省(自治区)农业税税率降低了3个百分点，河南、江苏、宁夏等地已经宣布2005年取消农业税。按照我国税收制度改革计划，在未来5年内全国各地都将先后取消农业税。 二、认识到我国是一个工业大国这个基本经济国情，对于制订经济现代化战略和政策、进一步推进我国现代化的整体进程具有重要意义 我国从农业大国向工业大国的基本国情变化表明，我国经济现代化进程进入了一个新的阶段。根据现有的大国的经济现代化经验，与三次产业结构演变规律相适应，可以将现代化进程划分为从农业大国到工业大国、工业大国到工业强国、工业强国到服务业大国三个阶段，这大致应该对应工业化初中期、工业化中后期和后工业化社会三个时期。对我国成为工业大国这个基本经济国情的判断，意味着我国经济现代化进程步入了第二阶段，我国应该根据这个阶段的主要特征制定科学的经济发展战略和政策。 第一，实现由工业大国向工业强国的转变、推进工业现代化进程是这个阶段的核心任务。我国已成为工业大国，但还不是工业强国。在当今世界格局下，象我们这样一个人口众多的社会主义国家要实现现代化，仅仅成为工业大国是不够的，必须能够成为一个工业强国。这个由工业大国向工业强国转变的过程实质就是推进工业现代化过程。工业是国民经济的主导力量，工业现代化是国民经济现代化的“发动机”。现阶段我国工业总量的庞大并不能掩盖工业素质较低、工业现代化水平有待提高的问题。无论是具有国际竞争力的大型工业企业相对缺乏，还是我国工业生产技术水平和研究开发能力与世界先进水平存在较大差距，以及在出口产品构成中附加值高的技术密集型产品出口比例小，整体工业劳动生产率低，等等，都表明了这一点。而且，推进工业现代化进程不仅仅是工业自身发展到一定阶段的必然要求，对于我国这样一个人均占有资源很少的人口大国，这也适应了工业化中期阶段以后必然要走的科技含量高、资源消耗低、环境污染少的新型工业化道路的要求。 第二，该阶段农业的发展和现代化依赖于工业积累支持和现代化工业的推动。尽管我国经济体制改革最早从农业开始，并且取得了举世瞩目的成就，但是，目前我国农产品的国际竞争力并不高，近10年贸易竞争指数一直小于零。面对“入世”后国际市场的激烈竞争，今后农业的发展离不开工业积累的支持和现代工业技术的推动。从国际经验看，工业发达国家普遍实行通过工业积累来支持农业的政策，对农产品施行价格补贴、提供信息、发放贷款、关税保护、出口补贴等各种扶持措施。随着我国工业日益强大，必然要逐步加大工业对农业的支持力度。 第三，在该阶段第三产业将加速发展，成为吸收农业剩余劳动力主要渠道，同时也为进入新的现代化阶段奠定基础。在实现由工业大国向工业强国的转变、推进工业现代化进程中，我国工业发展的重点将由数量扩张向质量提升转移，第二产业吸收农村剩余劳动力速度将大幅度下降。在我国第一产业从业人员还占全部从业人员将近一半的情况下，农业剩余劳动力的转移主要依靠第三产业的快速发展。不仅如此，随着工业现代化水平的提高，工业劳动生产率必将得到大幅度的提升，工业也会产生富裕劳动力问题，第三产业的发展还将承担吸收第二产业剩余劳动力的功能。实际上，这些年第三产业在我国国有企业下岗职工再就业中已经发挥了关键作用。未来，第三产业将得到更大的发展，成为扩大就业的主渠道。不仅如此，只有第三产业得到快速发展，才有可能将现代化进程推进第三阶段———由工业强国到服务业大国。 望采纳!
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“热钱”是只为追求最高报酬以最低风险而在国际金融市场上迅速流动的短期投机性资金。 "Hot money" is only for the pursuit of the highest reward with minimum risk in the international financial market speculative capital flows rapidly the short-term. 近年来，随着我国经济持续向好，国内投资机会增多，资产价格不断上扬，我国自然是“热钱”流入流出的热土，并且规模还呈现出不断扩大趋势。 In recent years, with China's economy continued to better off, domestic investment increased opportunities, asset prices continue to rise, China's nature is "hot money" hometown of inflow and outflow, and expanding the scale also presents trend. 这对我国宏观经济的稳定性产生了巨大影响，加大了宏观流动性金融风险，并且对资产价格和人民币汇率造成了冲击。 This macroeconomic stability of our country has made an enormous impact, increase the macro liquidity to financial risk, and asset prices and the RMB exchange rate caused a shock. 例如我国股市、楼市均出现过不正常的较大幅波动。 For example our stock and property are seen more unusual fluctuations. “热钱”日益成为社会各界关注的话题。 "Hot money" social from all walks of life has increasingly become an issue of concern. 我国在相关法律法规及制度方面还并不是十分完善，难以应对“热钱”的流入流出逐渐的多样化、隐蔽性的方式。 Our country in the relevant laws, regulations and systems also is not very perfect, difficult to deal with "hot money" inflow and outflow gradually diversification, covert way. 本文分析了“热钱”流入流出途径和对经济我国带来的影响。 This paper analyzes the "hot money" inflows in ways and on the economy out the impact of. 为地让“热钱”合理健康的为我国经济服务，在监管对策上建立金融稳定监控和预警系统提供理论参考。 For to let "hot money" for our country economy the reasonable health service, in the regulatory measures established on the financial stability monitoring and warning system to provide theoretical reference. [关键词] 短期投机性 金融风险 宏观经济稳定性 人民币汇率 [key words] short-term speculative financial risk macroeconomic stability of RMB exchange rate
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The development of modern financeFirst, the financial problem of the uncertainty(A) the uncertainty of the field in the application of asset pricing1. Portfolio Theory and Capital Asset Pricing ModelIn the framework of the financial analysis, introduction of the concept of uncertainty is a major role. First Kenes (1936) and Hicks (1939) proposed the concept of risk compensation that the financial products in the presence of uncertainty, should interest rates in different financial products in compensation for additional risks. Subsequently, Von Neumann (1947) applied the concept of expected utility of the proposed settlement in the decision-making under uncertainty in the method chosen, on this basis Markowiz (1952) developed a portfolio theory, he thought when investors choose portfolio concerned only with future cash flow of the mean and variance. He assumed that the expected utility of investors consistent with secondary distribution or multinomial distribution. Markowiz The main conclusions are subject to uncertainty, optimal decision-making is a diversified investment holding. Tobin (1958) that investor liquidity preferences for their own benefits and risks of different options for the balance. This further improved the framework of portfolio choice the field of asset pricing model is another well-known theory of capital pricing model (CAPM), Sharp (1994) and Lintner (1995) using the formula succinctly expressed the portfolio value and risk-free interest rate and the level of risk assets, the relationship between . Black (1972) introduced even in the non-risk assets zones remained the case, Sharp and the CAPM formula is still valid, just without the risk of interest rates are including the entire market on all assets of the portfolio rate of return instead of the 预期. Contemporary with the CAPM model of the asset pricing model also Ross (1977) arbitrage pricing model (APT) and Lucas (1978) the typical agent asset pricing by CAPM asset pricing model for asset pricing provides a simple method of calculation, and obtain some support from empirical studies (Fama and Macbeth, 1973), but in reality some of the anomalies is still a lack of effective explanatory power, Brennan (1989) that the CAPM is based on the expectations of all investors in the investment and risk are common in estimates and judgments, and all investors the same utility function based on the assumption that this assumption is inconsistent with the reality This is leading to some practical problems CAPM on the root causes of the lack of explanatory power. It is beyond doubt on these assumptions, to promote the introduction of the concept of asymmetric information and . Market efficiency hypothesisMarket efficiency hypothesis that in a perfectly competitive market, there is no asymmetric information and market frictions affect the future earnings of the average investment risk is different. 60s in the 20th century a large number of research workers on the market efficiency hypothesis was tested, Fama (1973) through empirical tests on the . stock market, that the efficient market hypothesis holds, but many researchers found that in the market, There are many market efficiency hypothesis or CAPM model can not explain the abnormal phenomenon. For example, Basu (1977) found that the average earnings assets, in addition to the β coefficient of the CAPM, but also with the price earnings ratio of assets (P / E ratio) is related to the same β coefficient, the higher the price earnings ratio stocks (growth stocks) better than the market price of the low price earnings ratio of stocks (value stocks); Benz (1981) found that the market price of the stock with the size of the listed company; Stattman (1980) found that stock prices and the ratio of book value (P / B ratio) is also an important factor affecting stock prices. Fama and French (1993) On the basis of the above three-factor model proposed that the impact of asset prices in the β factors, joined the P / E ratio and P / B ratio interpretation of these anomalies, the efficient market hypothesis seems powerless, someone had tried the "January effect" to the end of Shuishou interpreted as the impact of outflow, but in the United Kingdom, Australia, the annual revenue of the country is not in December, there are still "in January effect "can not be explained. Some scholars from a psychological perspective to explain these anomalies, such as, Dreman (1982) the stock price P / E ratio effect interpreted as the investor always overestimate growth stocks with high growth, leading to market high P / E ratio of stock market was overvalued, that it is a reason for low stock . Continuous time modelIn asset pricing theory is another important assumption: stock market is always in a continuous process, under this assumption, Merton (1969,1971) to develop instantaneous CAPM Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM), the same information symmetry, frictionless market, asset price changes in line with Ito process under these conditions, asset prices and investor preference for independent effectiveness. In subsequent studies Merton (1973) and Black (1973) The application of these continuous-time model has been successful in the option pricing formula, the formula was later confirmed that a large number of empirical studies and has been widely applied in practice.(B) the uncertainty of financial management in the company ofFinancial analysis is another important area of financial management, major research firms in the investment decision-making in the proportion of the debt and equity options, the company's dividend policy and other issues. Results of the first studies in this area by the Modigliani and Miller (1958) made their study shows that full market (no market frictions and asymmetric information exists) the value of the company has nothing to do with the company's debt ratio (MM theorem). A similar study concludes that the value of the company's profit distribution policy has nothing to do. Obviously, these research findings and practical in reality. MM theorem based on the conclusions in the distribution of profits, due to the cash outflow will be sent found Jinhong Li, the Company repurchased shares will be more willing to choose policies, rather than the dividend policy, in reality, many companies prefer to dividends rather than Share buy-back, this phenomenon is Black (1976) referred to as "Company dividend puzzle (Dividend Puzzle)", which Miller (1977) can give the explanation, MM theorem conclusion is that the reason and the reality of different tax and the so-called bankruptcy costs on the financial structure is the result of certain liabilities of the company can achieve the role of tax relief, another company because of the existence of high debt ratio risk of bankruptcy, so the debt ratio to the value of existing shares affected, Miller and Other scholars make on these financial problems are not very satisfactory interpretation of the whole until later after the introduction of asymmetric information, it seems Caidui explain these issues to achieve a mentioned above, some of the phenomena of reality is difficult to simply use the uncertainty (risk) to get a satisfactory explanation, it is in the research of these issues raises the question of asymmetric information on financial concerns, plus last 60 years in the 20th century to game theory, represented a breakthrough in the information economy research methods, leading many scholars to the financial problems of asymmetric information in the study achieved a lot, especially the use of asymmetric information can explain a lot of perfectly the financial structure issues. Following is an overview of this still results in two parts, first in the results of financial decision-making, followed by the asset pricing results.(A) asymmetric information in corporate financial management application
INTO THE STORMFOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar. Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world’s financial firms. Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials. China’s economic juggernaut powered on. And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand. Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.过去一年的大部分时间里，高速发展的新兴国家一直在远处观望着西方国家的金融风暴。他们的银行仅持有少量抵押资产，而类似的资产已经破坏了发达国家的金融公司。商品出口商因为原材料的高价格而日渐富有。中国不可抗拒的经济力量已然开启，而且信贷刺激的内需从布达佩斯到巴西利亚都表现得非常充足。尽管大萧条后关于西方国家受难于金融崩塌的话题与日俱增，但新兴国家似乎距离金融风暴的中心还有一段距离。No longer. As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world’s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled. The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.不过目前的情况不再是那样了，随着境外资本的流失和经济信心的消失，新兴国家股市暴跌（有些地区已经腰斩），本币迅速贬值。由于外国银行突然中断贷款，并且收缩了包括贸易信贷在内的基础银行服务，新兴国家的信贷市场突发混乱，并引发了一场浩劫。Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article). That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves. Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services industry. South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks’ debt. Less well-endowed countries are asking for help. Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($ billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine. Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help.新兴国家的政府和发达国家的政府一样都在为控制损失程度而奋斗。不过对于外汇储备充足的国家来说难度会小一些：俄罗斯斥资2200亿美元重振金融服务行业；韩国政府担保了1000亿美元的银行债务。而那些储备并不充足的国家正在四处求援：匈牙利成功向欧洲央行求得了50亿欧元（约66亿美元）的生命线，同时也在同国际货币基金组织协商借款事宜，同时向国际货币基金组织求援的还有乌克兰。近一打儿的国家在向基金组织求助。Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures. Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article). But even stalwarts are looking weaker. Figures released this week showed that China’s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.有持续问题的国家正棋行险招：阿根廷正在将私人养老金国有化，意图阻止违约的发生。即使强有力的国家也表现出虚弱一面：本周公布的数字表明今年中国的增长率在第三季度减缓为9%，虽然增速还算快，但是与近些年的两位数增率相比缓慢了不少。Blowing cold on credit对信贷没兴趣The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their economic fate will also have political consequences.众多新兴经济的意愿并不相同，但是累计在一起的影响力却非同一般。最明显的就是这些国家的表现将会决定世界经济所面临的是一个较为缓和的衰退还是更可怕的情况。在过去18个月的全球经济增长中，新兴经济贡献了75%。但是他们的经济命运也会有一些政治后果。In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments. But even strong regimes could suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest. More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today’s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.在类似东欧的很多地区，金融混乱目前的打击目标是软弱的政府；但强硬的政权同样会尝到苦果。一些专家认为中国每年需要7%的增长率来阻止社会动荡的发生。总体来说，如此争端必将影响全球经济一体化的讨论。与以往数次新兴经济危机不同，这次的混乱始于发达国家，很大程度上要归咎于一体化的资本市场。一旦新兴经济崩溃，无论是货币危机还是剧烈的经济萧条，大家对于金融全球化是否属明智之举会有更多的质疑。Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging economies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.幸运的是上述恐怖的场景没有发生在全球的每个角落：所有的新兴经济都会减缓发展速度，有一些也必将面临深度萧条；但是更多的国家在面临当下危机的时候却拥有比以往任何时候都强壮的形式，用充足的储备、弹性的货币和强大的预算武装自己。新兴国家及发达国家良好的政策可以避免大灾难的发生。One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world’s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect. Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reduces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.至少有一个原因值得抱有希望：发达国家此次灾难的直接经济影响还是在可控的范围内。欧美锐减的需求对出口来说无疑是一个打击，特别是对亚洲和墨西哥。商品价格走低：原油价格与巅峰时期比较已经下降了60%，很多粮食和金属类商品跌幅更大。这两个现象有混合效果：尽管从俄罗斯到南美的商品（能源）出口企业备受打击，但却帮助了亚洲的商品（能源）进口商，并且缓和了各地对通胀的恐惧。委内瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕，也很脆弱；不过由于过去极度的繁荣，商品价格下跌目前还不会引发大范围传播的危机。The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline. China’s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.比商品价格更令人震惊的事情发生在金融领域。由于资产价格的下降，财富水平正在被挤压缩水。以中国房价为例，目前已经开始下跌。尽管新兴国家的消费者比发达国家的负债水平低很多，上述情况还是会挫伤国内的经济信心。在其他方面，国外银行借款骤然匮乏、对冲基金以及其他投资者逃离债券市场，这些因素给信贷增长踩了一脚急刹车。正如发达的信贷曾经强力支撑国内支出那样，信贷紧缩将意味着增长放缓。Again, the impact will differ by country. Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world’s bank bail-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers’ group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year.需要再次重申的是，冲击的表现会因国家的不同而有所区别。多亏中国和海湾产油国经常项目下的巨额顺差，新型经济整体还不断的向发达国家输送资本。但是80 多个国家的财政赤字已经超过GDP的5%，其中的多数是那些依靠国外救助过活得贫困国家；不过也有一些依靠私人资本的大国。对于类似土耳其和南非的国家来说，突然减缓的境外融资迫使其进行大幅调整。东欧的情况特别令人担忧，那里的不少国家赤字水平已经达到了两位数。另外，象俄罗斯这样处于顺差的国家，其银行也逐渐适应了可以轻易从外国取得的贷款，原因自然是全球金融一体化。发达国家的救助计划也许可以限制财富被挤压的水平，但资本流向新兴世界的速度无疑会减慢。国际金融研协会预测私人资本的净流量比去年回减少30%。A wing and a prayer飞行之翼与祈祷者This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.信贷紧缩必将令人生畏，不过多数新兴市场可以躲过一劫，最大的市场形势还相当不错。比较脆弱的市场可以（也应该）得到帮助。Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending. Since the country’s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China’s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse. Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world.在那些坚强的巨人中，中国卓然不群：手握2万亿美元的储备，经常项下的顺差状态，与国外银行罕有关联，过剩的预算给推动支出留有足够空间。鉴于国家领导人已经明确表示将不惜一切代价为经济增长减速缓冲，中国的经济增长应该会减缓到大约8%的水平，但是决不会崩溃。虽然这不足以挽救世界经济，但是该增长率将会为商品价格建底并帮到新兴世界的其他国家。The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm. India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure. But Brazil’s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth. With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble. In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones.其他的经济大国会受到更大的冲击，不过应该可以禁受住风暴侵袭。印度的财政赤字巨大，巴西很多公司面临巨大的外汇风险。但巴西经济已经实现多样化，同时上述两个国家拥有充足的储备来平稳过渡到缓慢的增长。俄罗斯掌握着5500亿美元的储备，应该能够阻止对卢布的抢购。至少在短期内，小国家才是最弱不禁风的。There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments. But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference. Several emerging countries have asked America’s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will bail them out. A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend. Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma. That needs to change. The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans. Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world. Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world.受到紧缩信贷压力进行的调整必然带来痛苦，但快速的国际援助是明智之举，因为这会让结果很不相同。一些新兴国家已经向美联储求援以缓解流动性问题；有一些则希望中国可以拯救他们与水火。更佳的求救路线莫过于国际货币基金组织，因为它掌握大量的专门知识和2500亿美元的可出借款项。不幸的是人们认为向基金借款有辱其名，国际货币基金组织应该推出更快捷、更灵活的金融工具，同时实现借贷条件最小化。过去数月中，机敏的决策驱散了发达国家的灾难。现在也正是新兴世界发生类似事情的时候了。
Under current financial situation, how financial institutions slove its funding is a both practical and pressing problem. Therefore, many famous scholars nation-wide had made researches regarding this issue and had made several great achievements. How effectively could financial institutions slove its limitations of funding is both crucial to the developement of itself and also to maintain the balance of financial markets to a larger essay based on relative funding theories, is aimed to analyse our country's current funding situations and led to the conclusion that national financial institutions are all faced with serious funding limitations. Moreover, I would tend to analyse its implications from different perspectives. Further discussions would be foucused on its causes, including legislations, operating environments also problems related to the institution sloving its limited funding would involve systematic changes, it comes to two final aspects: one being expanding its funding sources and the other would be to build a system that better-fit in our country for financial institutions seeking for fund or sercurities. Based on studies from successful foreign experiences, In this essay, I had made several detailed analysis regarding to the two aspects previous mentioned, and offered some well-considered suggestions on buliding a effective and securied financial system in our country. Risks associated with financial funding would be of the most importance to consider,thus lastly this essay had further added some discussions on how to take precautions against these a free market of finance, how do we improve our national financial institutions' performaces had become the key for providing capital market balances and quick developements. Being a capital-concentrated industry, one that had just been started in our country, financial institutions' development would largely be dependent on how sucessfully they can be capital-funded. Changes made to
蛮困难的~终于弄到了！In the current financial situation, the securities companies financing is a strong practical and very pressing issues. Numerous well-known scholars have done a lot of fruitful research. How effective solution to the financing constraint securities companies, for securities firms to grow and develop their own, the smooth functioning of financial markets are of great significance. In this paper, the related financing based on the theory, with emphasis on China's securities companies, financial status were analyzed with the existence of China's securities firms are more serious financial constraints this conclusion, and then on this basis, the financing from various point of view of constraints on China's a profound impact on securities further explored in a detailed analysis of financial constraints caused by the reasons for securities firms - both of which the legal system, operating environmental factors, more security company's own reasons. Securities firms to solve the financing constraint problem is a systematic project, but in the end can be summarized into two aspects: First, to broaden the financing channels, the second is to establish conditions suited to China's securities companies margin trading system. By drawing on the experience of mature foreign countries, the article did focus on these two aspects of a more detailed study of China's securities companies to broaden the financing channels for financing the establishment of an effective security system, to mentionFor a more mature proposal. Because the financing risk is currently securities firms should consider financing the focus, so papers in the final also on how to guard against the risk of corporate finance in the securities discussed. The full liberalization in the financial industry situation, how to fully enhance the security of our country's overall strength has become the capital market to ensure healthy and stable operation, and rapid development. As a capital-intensive industry, a little has just begun in China industry, securities companies to grow and develop to a large extent depends on its ability to smoothly into the required funds. "Securities Law" and "Company Law"Changes to the securities company, provides a more generous financing of the external environment, but the ultimate solution to this problem, but depends on the further improvement of the economic system and the securities company's own tireless efforts.
In the current financial situation, the securities companies financing is a strong practical and very pressing issues. Numerous well-known scholars have done a lot of fruitful research. How effective solution to the financing constraint securities companies, for securities firms to grow and develop their own, the smooth functioning of financial markets are of great significance. In this paper, the related financing based on the theory, with emphasis on China's securities companies, financial status were analyzed with the existence of China's securities firms are more serious financial constraints this conclusion, and then on this basis, the financing from various point of view of constraints on China's a profound impact on securities firms. And further explored in a detailed analysis of financial constraints caused by the reasons for securities firms - both of which the legal system, operating environmental factors, more security company's own reasons. Securities firms to solve the financing constraint problem is a systematic project, but in the end can be summarized into two aspects: First, to broaden the financing channels, the second is to establish conditions suited to China's securities companies margin trading system. By drawing on the experience of mature foreign countries, the article did focus on these two aspects of a more detailed study of China's securities companies to broaden the financing channels for financing the establishment of an effective security system provides a more mature proposal. Because the financing risk is currently securities firms should consider financing the focus, so papers in the final also on how to guard against the risk of corporate finance in the securities discussed. The full liberalization in the financial industry situation, how to fully enhance the security of our country's overall strength has become the capital market to ensure healthy and stable operation, and rapid development. As a capital-intensive industry, a little has just begun in China industry, securities companies to grow and develop to a large extent depends on its ability to smoothly into the required funds. "Securities Law" and "Company Law" amendment to the securities company, provides a more generous financing of the external environment, but the ultimate solution to this problem, but depends on the further improvement of the economic system and the securities company's own tireless efforts.
其具体操作可翻译为：shorting and margin financing 如果是名词性短语的话用：Security financing 或者 Financing security
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关于如何把论文翻译成英文的问题，强烈推荐使用百度翻译的文档翻译功能，优点如下：第一，速度快，即使是知网上下载的长篇论文也可以快速解锁译文；第二，百度文档翻译有丰富的术语库，可以保证译文的准确性；第三，译文可以在线编辑也可以保存到本地。
可以到翻译机构或者聘请专业的外文翻译者寻求帮助。翻译机构拥有专业翻译团队，可确保翻译的专业性和质量，并可在合理的时间内完成任务。此外，聘请专业的外文翻译者也是一个不错的选择，因为这样可以了解译者对英文的掌握程度，有较强的语言能力的翻译者能够更好地完成外文毕业论文的翻译任务。除了上述两种方法外，还可以搜索相关翻译软件进行翻译，但是这样的效果往往达不到预期要求，因此在提交毕业论文前，还是建议使用上面提到的方式寻求专业的外文翻译帮助。
问题一：毕业论文外文翻译是什么意思？有什么要求？ 外文翻译要求：（1）选定外文文献后先给指导老师看，得到老师的确认通过后方可翻译。（2）选择外文翻译时一定选择外国作者写的文章，可从学校中知网或者外文数据库下载。（3）外文翻译字数要求3000字以上，从外文互章起始处开始翻译，不允许从文章中间部分开始翻译，翻译必须结束于文章的一个大段落。 问题二：毕业设计的外文翻译有字数要求吗 难道你们的任务书没有要求么？不然问问指导老师啊~不同学校不同专业要求也会不一样。 问题三：外文翻译需要注意的地方和遵守的原则有哪些？ 任何外文翻译不需遵循的三条黄金原则是：1。信：意思是要忠实于原文的信息，不能改变原文的意思，尤其是翻译科技类，经济类文章，这条很重要2。达：就是要通顺，要尊重目标语言的习惯，比如将英文翻译成中文时，要在坚持“信”的原则下，是翻译更加贴近中文的习惯。3。雅：要有文采。当然这也可以称之为翻译的三种境界，它们三者是相互联系而非矛盾的。 问题四：硕士论文对国外文献有数量要求吗？ 学校规定的是外文数量不少于总文献数量的1/3，当然了只是个规定而已，也没有人去专门查查到底占到几分之几，各个学校的规定到不一样。总之尽量多弄点英文文献吧，你懂的！ 参考文献可以在百度学术中找到。 毕业论文参考文献规范格式 一、参考文献的类型 参考文献（即引文出处）的类型以单字母方式标识，具体如下： M――专著 C――论文集 N――报纸文章 J――期刊文章 D――学位论文 R――报告 对于不属于上述的文献类型，采用字母“Z”标识。 对于英文参考文献，还应注意以下两点： ①作者姓名采用“姓在前名在后”原则，具体格式是：姓，名字的首字母. 如： Malcolm Richard Cowley 应为：Cowley, .，如果有两位作者，第一位作者方式不变，&之后第二位作者名字的首字母放在前面，姓放在后面，如：Frank Norris 与Irving Gordon应为：Norris, F. & .； ②书名、报刊名使用斜体字，如：Mastering English Literature，English Weekly。 二、参考文献的格式及举例 1.期刊类 [格式][序号]作者.篇名[J].刊名，出版年份，卷号（期号）：起止页码. [举例] [1] 王海粟.浅议会计信息披露模式[J].财政研究，2004,21(1)：56-58. [2] 夏鲁惠.高等学校毕业论文教学情况调研报告[J].高等理科教育，2004(1):46-52. [3] Heider, . The structure of color space in naming and memory of two languages [J]. Foreign Language Teaching and Research, 1999, (3): 62 C 67. 2.专著类 [格式][序号]作者.书名[M].出版地：出版社，出版年份：起止页码. [举例][4] 葛家澍，林志军.现代西方财务会计理论[M].厦门：厦门大学出版社，2001：42. [5] Gill, R. Mastering English Literature [M]. London: Macmillan, 1985: 42-45. 3.报纸类 [格式][序号]作者.篇名[N].报纸名，出版日期（版次）. [举例] [6] 李大伦.经济全球化的重要性[N]. 光明日报，1998-12-27(3). [7] French, W. Between Silences: A Voice from China[N]. Atlantic Weekly, 1987-8-15(33). 4.论文集 [格式][序号]作者.篇名[C].出版地：出版者，出版年份：起始页码. [举例] [8] 伍蠡甫.西方文论选[C]. 上海：上海译文出版社，1979：12-17. [9] Spivak,G. “Can the Subaltern Speak?”[A]. In & L. Gros *** erg(eds.). Victory in Limbo: Imigi *** [C]. Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1988, . [10] Almarza, . Student foreign language teacher’s knowledg......>> 问题五：请问本科生毕业论文需要英文翻译吗？？？谢谢…… 每个学校的要求不完全相同。但是摘要和关键词肯定需要翻译成英文的。。 问题六：毕业论文外文文献翻译没有摘要关键词可以吗？ 10分 论文一般由题名、作者、摘要、关键词、正文、参考文献和附录等部分组成，其中部分组成（例如附录）可有可无。论文各组成的排序为：题名、作者、摘要、关键词、英文题名、英文摘要、英文关键词、正文、参考文献和附录和致谢。 下面按论文的结构顺序依次叙述。 题目 (一)论文――题目科学论文都有题目，不能“无题”。论文题目一般20字左右。题目大小应与内容符合，尽量不设副题，不用第1报、第2报之类。论文题目都用直叙口气，不用惊叹号或问号，也不能将科学论文题目写成广告语或新闻报道用语。 署名 (二)论文――署名科学论文应该署真名和真实的工作单位。主要体现责任、成果归属并便于后人追踪研究。严格意义上的论文作者是指对选题、论证、查阅文献、方案设计、建立方法、实验操作、整理资料、归纳总结、撰写成文等全过程负责的人，应该是能解答论文的有关问题者。往往把参加工作的人全部列上，那就应该以贡献大小依次排列。论文署名应征得本人同意。学术指导人根据实际情况既可以列为论文作者，也可以一般致谢。行政领导人一般不署名。 引言 (三)论文――引言是论文引人入胜之言，很重要，要写好。一段好的论文引言常能使读者明白你这份工作的发展历程和在这一研究方向中的位置。要写出论文立题依据、基础、背景、研究目的。要复习必要的文献、写明问题的发展。文字要简练。 材料方法 (四)论文――材料和方法按规定如实写出实验对象、器材、动物和试剂及其规格，写出实验方法、指标、判断标准等，写出实验设计、分组、统计方法等。这些按杂志对论文投稿规定办即可。 实验结果 (五)论文――实验结果应高度归纳，精心分析，合乎逻辑地铺述。应该去粗取精，去伪存真，但不能因不符合自己的意图而主观取舍，更不能弄虚作假。只有在技术不熟练或仪器不稳定时期所得的数据、在技术故障或操作错误时所得的数据、不符合实验条件时所得的数据才能废弃不用。而且必须在发现问题当时就在原始记录上注明原因，不能在总结处理时因不合常态而任意剔除。废弃这类数据时应将在同样条件下、同一时期的实验数据一并废弃，不能只废弃不合己意者。 实验结果的整理应紧扣主题，删繁就简，有些数据不一定适合于这一篇论文，可留作它用，不要硬行拼凑到一篇论文中。论文行文应尽量采用专业术语。能用表的不要用图，可以不用图表的最好不要用图表，以免多占篇幅，增加排版困难。文、表、图互不重复。实验中的偶然现象和意外变故等特殊情况应作必要的交代，不要随意丢弃。 讨论 (六)论文――讨论是论文中比较重要，也是比较难写的一部分。应统观全局，抓住主要的有争议问题，从感性认识提高到理性认识进行论说。要对实验结果作出分析、推理，而不要重复叙述实验结果。应着重对国内外相关文献中的结果与观点作出讨论，表明自己的观点，尤其不应回避相对立的观点。论文的讨论中可以提出假设，提出本题的发展设想，但分寸应该恰当，不能写成“科幻”或“畅想”。 问题七：你们有什么问题要问我的吗 英文翻译 答案Do you have any questions you would like to ask me采纳我吧！ 问题八：文献综述有字数要求吗.... 有，4000字左右，一般要看期刊的要求！ 问题九：英文翻译：我们应该提交哪些资料？ What data should we submit?问句应该用疑问句语序。
什么意思？要英文的？题目要汉语翻译？
我有一篇我本科毕设的小论文，英文中文都有，而且是我人工翻译的，8000字左右。你要的话PM我。我是电气工程及其自动化专业的。《Analysis of thyristor-controlled phase shifter applied in damping power system oscillations》
你好，软件翻译不太现实。有两种有效途径可供选择：1. 网上搜索 DLT 电力行业词汇 第10部分：电力设备。 豆丁和百度都有。 根据国家标准的专业词汇来翻吧。2. cnki翻译助手，专业论文中挑出的专业词汇供您参考。
文库168有毕业设计外文翻译 很多