宏观经济学论文发表笔记

• Because every transaction has a buyer and a seller, the total expenditure in the economy must equal the total income in the economy. • Gross domestic product (GDP) measures an economy’s total expenditure on newly produced goods and ser-vices and the total income earned from the production of these goods and services. More precisely, GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. • GDP is divided among four components of expen-diture: consumption, investment, government pur-chases, and net exports. Consumption includes spending on goods and services by households, with the exception of purchases of new housing. Investment includes spending on new equipment and structures, including households’ purchases of new housing. Government purchases include spending on goods and services by local, state, and federal governments. Net exports equal the value of goods and services pro-duced domestically and sold abroad (exports) minus the value of goods and services produced abroad and sold domestically (imports). • Nominal GDP uses current prices to value the econ-omy’s production of goods and services. Real GDP uses constant base-year prices to value the economy’s production of goods and services. The GDP deflator—calculated from the ratio of nominal to real GDP—measures the level of prices in the economy. • GDP is a good measure of economic well-being be-cause people prefer higher to lower incomes. But it is not a perfect measure of well-being. For example, GDP excludes the value of leisure and the value of a clean environment.• The consumer price index shows the cost of a basket of goods and services relative to the cost of the same basket in the base year. The index is used to measure the overall level of prices in the economy. The percentage change in the consumer price index measures the inflation rate. • The consumer price index is an imperfect measure of the cost of living for three reasons. First, it does not take into account consumers’ ability to substitute to-ward goods that become relatively cheaper over time. Second, it does not take into account increases in the purchasing power of the dollar due to the introduc-tion of new goods. Third, it is distorted by unmeasured changes in the quality of goods and services. Because of these measurement problems, the CPI overstates true inflation. • Like the consumer price index, the GDP deflator measures the overall level of prices in the economy. The two price indexes usually move together, but there are important differences. The GDP deflator differs from the CPI because it includes goods and services produced rather than goods and services consumed. As a result, imported goods affect the consumer price index but not the GDP deflator. In addition, while the consumer price index uses a fixed basket of goods, the GDP deflator automatically changes the group of goods and services over time as the composition of GDP changes. • Dollar figures from different times do not represent a valid comparison of purchasing power. To compare a dollar figure from the past to a dollar figure today, the older figure should be inflated using a price index. • Various laws and private contracts use price indexes to correct for the effects of inflation. The tax laws, however, are only partially indexed for inflation. • A correction for inflation is especially important when looking at data on interest rates. The nominal interest rate is the interest rate usually reported; it is the rate at which the number of dollars in a savings account increases over time. By contrast, the real interest rate takes into account changes in the value of the dollar over time. The real interest rate equals the nominal interest rate minus the rate of inflation. • Economic prosperity, as measured by GDP per person, varies substantially around the world. The average in-come in the world’s richest countries is more than ten times that in the world’s poorest countries. Because growth rates of real GDP also vary substantially, the relative positions of countries can change dramatically over time. • The standard of living in an economy depends on the economy’s ability to produce goods and services. Productivity, in turn, depends on the physical capital, human capital, natural resources, and technological knowledge available to workers. • Government policies can try to influence the econo-my’s growth rate in many ways: by encouraging sav-ing and investment, encouraging investment from abroad, fostering education, promoting good health, maintaining property rights and political stability, allowing free trade, and promoting the research and de-velopment of new technologies. • The accumulation of capital is subject to diminishing returns: The more capital an economy has, the less ad-ditional output the economy gets from an extra unit of capital. As a result, although higher saving leads to higher growth for a period of time, growth eventually slows down as capital, productivity, and income rise. Also because of diminishing returns, the return to cap-ital is especially high in poor countries. Other things being equal, these countries can grow faster because of the catch-up effect. • Population growth has a variety of effects on economic growth. On the one hand, more rapid population growth may lower productivity by stretching the supply of natural resources and by reducing the amount of capital available for each worker. On the other hand, a larger population may enhance the rate of technological progress because there are more scientists and engineers. • The U.S. financial system is made up of many types of financial institutions, such as the bond market, the stock market, banks, and mutual funds. All these institutions act to direct the resources of households that want to save some of their income into the hands of households and firms that want to borrow. • National income accounting identities reveal some im-portant relationships among macroeconomic variables. In particular, for a closed economy, national saving must equal investment. Financial institutions are the mechanism through which the economy matches one person’s saving with another person’s investment. • The interest rate is determined by the supply and demand for loanable funds. The supply of loanable funds comes from households that want to save some of their income and lend it out. The demand for loanable funds comes from households and firms that want to borrow for investment. To analyze how any policy or event affects the interest rate, one must consider how it affects the supply and demand for loanable funds. • National saving equals private saving plus public saving. A government budget deficit represents negative public saving and, therefore, reduces national saving and the supply of loanable funds available to finance investment. When a government budget deficit crowds out investment, it reduces the growth of productivity and GDP. • The unemployment rate is the percentage of those who would like to work who do not have jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates this statistic monthly based on a survey of thousands of households. • The unemployment rate is an imperfect measure of joblessness. Some people who call themselves unemployed may actually not want to work, and some people who would like to work have left the labor force after an unsuccessful search and therefore are not counted as unemployed. • In the U.S. economy, most people who become unemployed find work within a short period of time. Nonetheless, most unemployment observed at any given time is attributable to the few people who are unemployed for long periods of time. • One reason for unemployment is the time it takes workers to search for jobs that best suit their tastes and skills. This frictional unemployment is increased as a result of unemployment insurance, a government policy designed to protect workers’ incomes. • A second reason our economy always has some unem-ployment is minimum-wage laws. By raising the wage of unskilled and inexperienced workers above the equi-librium level, minimum-wage laws raise the quantity of labor supplied and reduce the quantity demanded. The resulting surplus of labor represents unemployment. • A third reason for unemployment is the market power of unions. When unions push the wages in unionized industries above the equilibrium level, they create a surplus of labor. • A fourth reason for unemployment is suggested by the theory of efficiency wages. According to this theory, firms find it profitable to pay wages above the equilibrium level. High wages can improve worker health, lower worker turnover, raise worker quality, and increase worker effort.

国家收入&生活费用的衡量 国内生产总值GDP：一国总收入，被认为是衡量社会经济福利最好的一个指标 gross  domestic product ：在某一既定时期内，一个国家内生产的，所有最终物品与劳务的市场价值（一个国家的地理范围） GDP  Y=C+I+G+NX  consumption消费 ：家庭除购买新住房之外用于物品和劳务的支出 investment投资：购买用于生产其他物品的物品（资本设备，存贷和建筑物，包括家庭用于购买新住房） government  purchase政府购买：地方州联邦政府用于物品与劳务的支出（转移支付社保等不计） net export 净出口：外国人对国内生产物品的支出-国内居民对外国物品的支出（进口-出口） 通货膨胀：物价平均上升的比率 名义GDP（现期价格） 真实GDP （不变价格） GDP平减指数 ：名义/真实 consumer price index 消费物价指数 CPI inflation rate 通货膨胀率 =（第二年GDP平减-第一年GDP平减）/第一年GDP平减 =（第二年CPI平减-第一年CPI平减）/第一年CPI平减 真实利率=名义利率-通货膨胀率 追赶效应：开始时贫穷的国家倾向于比开始时富裕的国家增加更快的特征 外部性：一个人的行为对旁观者福利的影响 鼓励储蓄与投资是政府促进增长的一种办法，并且在长期中也是提高一个经济生活水平的一种方法 储蓄投资和金融体系 金融体系：经济中促使一个人的储蓄与另一个人得投资相匹配的一组机构 金融市场（债券市场、股票市场）：储蓄者用以借以直接向借款者提供资金的金融机构 债券：一种债务证明书（期限，信用风险，税收待遇） 股票：企业部分所有权的索取权 金融中介机构（银行、共同基金）：储蓄者可以借以间接地向借款者提供资金的金融机构 可贷资金市场；想储蓄的人借以提供资金，想借钱投资的人借以借贷资金的市场 （存在一种利率，真实利率，既是储蓄收益，又是借款成本） 储蓄是可贷资金供给的来源，投资是可贷资金需求的来源 基本金融工具 金融学：研究人们如何在某一时期内做出关于配置资源和应对风险的学科 效用：一个人对福利或满足的主观衡量 贴现：寻找一定量未来货币现值的过程 年金：在死亡之前每年的一笔定期收入（保险公司支付） 风险的多元化：通过用大量不相关的小风险代替一种风险来降低风险 有效市场假说（即使有效市场假说不是对世界的准确描述，也包含了大量真理的成分） 失业 失业者：能够工作且在之前4周内努力找工作但没有找到工作的人，还包括被解雇正在等待重新被招回工作岗位的人 劳动力=就业者人数+失业者人数 周期性失业：失业率对自然失业率的背离 自然失业率：失业率围绕着它而波动的正常失业率 大多数失业是短期的，而在任何一个既定时间所观察到的大多数失业又是长期的（通常是不同企业间劳动需求变动的结果） 摩擦性失业：由于工人寻找最适合自己嗜好和技能的工作需要时间而引起的失业 结构性失业：由于某些劳动市场上可提供的工作岗位数量不足以为每个想工作的人提供工作而引起的失业。 失业保险、政府政策、工会、效率工资、最低工资法→大于均衡工资导致失业 效率工资：企业为了提高工人生产率而支付的高于均衡水平的工资 货币&物价 货币职能：交换媒介、计价单位、价值储藏手段 流动性：一种资产兑换为经济中交换媒介的容易程度（货币是最具有流动性的资产） 商品货币：以有内在价值的商品为形式的货币（即使不作为货币，东西本身也有价值，如黄金） 法定货币：没有内在价值，由政府法令确定作为通货使用的货币） 货币存量：经济中流通的货币量（通货、存款、基金等，不包括信用卡） 准备金：银行得到但没有贷出去的存款（当银行只把部分存款作为准备金时，创造了货币） 货币乘数：银行体系用1美元准备金所产生的货币量（准备金率的倒数） 贴现率：美联储向银行发放贷款的利率 联邦基金利率：银行向另一家银行进行隔夜贷款时的利率 美联储控制货币的工具：公开市场操作（买卖政府债券）、法定准备金率（提高准备金率减少货币供给）、贴现率（贷款利率上升，减少准备金率，减少供给） 货币增长&通货膨胀 在长期中，物价总水平调整到使货币需求等于货币供给的水平 货币数量论：一种认为可得到的货币量决定物价水平，可得到的货币量的增长率决定通货膨胀的理论 名义变量：按货币单位衡量的变量 真实变量：按实物单位衡量的变量 古典二分法：名义变量和真实变量的理论区分 货币中性：货币供给变动并不影响真实变量的观点（货币是计价单位，但是短期中对真实变量有影响） 货币流通速度：货币易手的速度 V=（P*Y）/M=（物价水平即GDP平减指数*产量即真实GDP）/货币量 M*V=P*Y  数量方程式    货币量的增加必然反映在其他三个变量中的一个上，物价水平必然上升，产量必然上升或流通速度必然下降  通常情况下货币流通速度是较为稳定的 通货膨胀税：政府通过创造货币而筹集的收入 费雪效应：当美联储提高货币增长率时，长期的结果是更高的通货膨胀率和更高的名义利率即，名义利率对通货膨胀率所进行的一对一调整 通货膨胀的成本： 购买力下降是错误的，通货膨胀本身并没有降低人们的实际购买力 皮鞋成本：当通货膨胀鼓励人们减少货币持有量时所浪费的资源 菜单成本：改变价格的成本 相对价格变动与资源配置不当 引起的税收扭曲 计价的混乱与不便 未预期到的物价变动在债务人和债权人之间进行财富的再分配 贸易 贸易盈余：出口大于进口的部分 资本净流出NCO：本国居民购买外国资产减外国人购买的本国资产 净出口=资本净流出 储蓄=国内投资+资本净流出 名义汇率：一个人可以用一国通货交换另一国通货的比率 真实汇率：一个人可以用一国物品与劳务交换另一国物品与劳务的比率 真实汇率=名义利率*国内价格/国外价格 第一种汇率决定理论：购买力均价（任何一个单位通货应该能在所有国家买到等量物品，如果不一样则存在套利会使得最后均价） 根据这个理论，两国通货之间的名义利率必然反映这两个国家的物价水平 购买力平价的局限性： 1.许多物品不容易进行贸易，套利有局限性 2.即使可贸易的物品，当在不同国家生产时，也并不能完全替代 在一个开放经济中，政府预算赤字提高了真实利率，挤出了国内投资，引起了美元升值，并使贸易余额倾向于赤字 贸易政策：关税、进口配额 资本外逃：一国资产需求大量且突然地减少 资本外逃增加了真实利率，降低了其在外汇市场上的价值 总需求&总供给 衰退：真实收入下降和失业增加的时期 萧条：严重的衰退 经济波动： 1.无规律且不可预测 2.大多数宏观经济变量同时波动 3.随着产量减少，失业增加 大多数经济学家认为，古典理论描述了长期世界，但并没有描述短期世界 物价水平下降增加了物品与劳务的需求量： 1.消费者更富有，刺激了消费品需求 2.利率下降，刺激了投资品需求 3.通货贬值，刺激了进出口需求 总需求曲线向下方倾斜： 1.财富效应：物价水平下降增加了真实财富，鼓励了消费支出  2.利率效应：物价水平下降降低了利率，鼓励了投资支出  3.汇率效应：物价水平下降引起真实汇率下降，鼓励了净出口支出 长期中总供给曲线是垂直的，短期是向右上方倾斜（黏性工资，黏性价格，对相对价格的错觉） 当实际物价水平背离人们预期的物价水平时，短期产量就背离其长期水平 产品供应量=自然增长率+a（实际物价水平-预期物价水平） 滞胀：产量减少而物价上升的时期 货币政策财政政策对总需求的影响 流动性偏好理论：凯恩斯的理论，认为利率的调整使货币供给与货币需求平衡 利率上升，货币需求量下降 乘数效应：当扩张性财政政策增加了收入，从而增加了消费支出时，引起的总需求的额外变动 边际消费倾向MPC：家庭额外收入中用于消费而不用于储蓄的比例 乘数=1/（1-MPC） 挤出效应：当扩张性财政政策引起利率上升，从而减少了投资支出时所引起的总需求减少 通货膨胀&失业 菲利普斯曲线：一条表示通货膨胀与失业之间短期权衡取舍的曲线（负相关） 在长期中，失业并不取决于货币增长和通货膨胀 失业率=自然失业率-a（实际通货膨胀-预期通货膨胀） 自然失业率假说：认为无论通货膨胀如何，失业最终要回到其正常率或自然率的观点 供给冲击：直接改变企业的成本和价格使经济中的总供给曲线移动，从而使菲利普斯曲线移动的事件 牺牲率：在通货膨胀减少一个百分比的过程中每年产量损失的百分点数 理性预期：当人们在预测未来时，可以充分运用他们所拥有的全部信息，包括有关政府政策的信息的理论 在最极端的情况下，牺牲率可以是零：如果政府做出了低通货膨胀政策的可信承诺，人们的理性就足以使它们立即降低其通货膨胀预期。短期菲利普斯曲线将向下移动，而且经济将很快达到低通货膨胀，而无须付出暂时高失业和低产量的代价 宏观政策的争论 零通货膨胀 支持：通货膨胀有很多成本，即使有好处也很少。此外小胡通货膨胀的代价——压低产量和就业——只是暂时的。如果中央银行宣布一项可行的降低通货膨胀的计划，从而直接降低通货膨胀预期，那么甚至连这种代价也可以减少。 反对：温和的通货膨胀给社会只带来很小的成本，而降低通货膨胀所需的衰退则代价高昂 平衡政府预算 支持：预算赤字通过增加子孙后代的税收并减少他们的收入而把不工作的负担加在他们身上 反对：赤字只是财政政策的一小部分 税收激励储蓄 反对：许多刺激储蓄的变动主要使富人收益，且对私人储蓄只有微小的影响，通过降低政府预算赤字来增加公共储蓄可以提供更直接、更平等地增加国民储蓄的方法。