经济类英文文章有it

既有英文还有中文翻译。比如经济收缩 美国大力出资刺激借贷US Government Acts to Spur Lending Amid Economic Downturn经济收缩 美国大力出资刺激借贷The . economy has contracted more sharply than previously believed, according to new government figures. Meanwhile, in yet another sign of continuing stress in the credit market, the . central bank is allocating hundreds of billion of additional dollars to purchase bad mortgage debt and spur consumer lending.美国政府公布的最新统计数字显示，美国经济今年第三季度的收缩幅度远远大於先前的估计。与此同时，为了缓和信贷市场持续不断的压力，美国的中央银行正在拿出数千亿美元收购房贷坏帐和刺激消费者借贷。Revised figures from the Commerce Department show the American economy shrank at an annual rate of percent in the third quarter of the year, a greater contraction than the original estimate of percent. The negative quarter followed a year of mostly-anemic growth, and, while the fourth quarter has yet to be completed, economists believe it, too, will show significant contraction.根据美国商务部发布的经过修正的数据，美国经济在今年第三季度折合成年率收缩了，远远大於先前估计的。在此之前，美国经济增长已经持续疲软了一年。今年第四季度虽然尚未结束，但是经济学家相信，美国经济在今年最后三个月也将是大幅度收缩。"GDP [gross domestic product] fell by percent because consumers spent less, there were fewer new homes built, and expenditures for business purposes fell," said. University of Maryland economist Peter Morici. "Unfortunately, this is a precursor of worse things to come."马里兰大学的经济学教授彼得·莫里奇(Peter Morici)说：“国内生产总值(GDP)下降了是因为消费者花销减少、新房子修建太少、用于商业目的的开销下滑。不幸的是，这些还只是即将来临的更糟糕的情况的前奏。”Most analysts trace America's current economic woes to tight credit conditions sparked by a wave of home foreclosures and mortgage defaults. In recent weeks, the . government has taken a series of aggressive, unprecedented steps to prop up or take control of major lending institutions and financial firms, committing well over $2 trillion to the effort.绝大多数分析人士都把美国目前的经济困难归咎于房贷违约和丧失抵押住房赎回权案子激增所导致的信贷条件紧缩。最近几周来，美国政府采取了一系列前所未有的大刀阔斧行动来支持或接管主要的信贷机构和金融公司，承诺拿出的资金总额已经超过两万亿美元。Now, the Federal Reserve says it will devote an additional $600 billion to combat the mortgage meltdown, and another $200 billion to unfreeze consumer credit. A small portion of the new funds will come from a $700 billion rescue package Congress approved last month, which is being administered by the Treasury Department.现在，美国联邦储备委员会又说，将再拿出6000亿美元来抵御房贷市场的下滑，另外还要拿出2000亿美元来帮助消费者信贷市场解冻。在这笔新的救市基金中，有一小部分来自国会上个月批准的7000亿美元金融救援计划。美国财政部负责管理这些金融救援资金。"By providing liquidity to issuers of consumer asset-backed paper [consumer loans], the Federal Reserve facility will enable a broad range of institutions to step up their lending, enabling borrowers to have access to lower-cost consumer finance and small business loans," said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. "Today's announcement by the Fed underscores our support for the housing market. Nothing is more important to getting through this housing correction than the availability of affordable mortgage finance."财政部长保尔森说：“通过向消费者贷款发放部门提供流动性，美联储就可以帮助各种各样的机构增加借贷，并且使借款人能够获得成本较低的消费者贷款和小企业贷款。为了渡过这次房地产市场的修正期，没有什么事情比提供人们能够负担得起的房贷融资更加重要了。”Few, if any economists would contest the importance of the availability of credit to the health of the American economy, nor the desirability of the federal government doing all it can to reverse a credit crunch that has constrained businesses and consumers alike.说到信贷市场对于美国经济健康的重要性，几乎没有任何经济学家持反对意见。他们也都赞同联邦政府竭尽全力扭转信贷紧缩的局面，因为信贷紧缩使工商企业和消费者同时受到制约。But the sheer scale of initiatives undertaken to date, and the apparent need for successive waves of government intervention are an unsettling indication of the magnitude and the tenacity of the problem being confronted, according to economics professor Lawrence White of the University of Missouri.然而联邦政府迄今为止所采取的这些规模空前的计划，以及一波接一波迫切需要政府干预的浪潮，令人不安地显示出目前问题是多么的巨大和艰难。密苏里大学的经济学教授劳伦斯·怀特说："It is a recognition [that] we still have a big problem. It is a strong statement by the Fed that it is going to take massive, broad, forceful efforts to try to break the back of [resolve] the crisis," he said.“大家都认识到我们仍然面临一个很大的问题。美联储的行动已经强有力地说明，我们需要采取大规模的、广泛的、强有力的努力来破解这场危机。”In the face of relentlessly grim economic news, Treasury Secretary Paulson says the federal government is doing all it can to mitigate the situation.面对这些滚滚而来的冷酷无情的经济新闻，美国财政部长保尔森表示，联邦政府将尽一切努力来缓和目前的形势。"It will take time to work through the difficulties in our market and our economy, and new challenges will continue to arise. I and my regulatory colleagues are committed to using all the tools at our disposal to preserve the strength of our financial institutions and stabilize our financial markets to minimize the spill-over [damage] into the rest of the economy," he said.“我们需要时间来克服我们的市场和我们的经济中存在的困难，而且新的挑战还会继续出现。我和其他负责监管的同仁们决心利用一切可以利用的手段来确保我们金融机构的实力，稳定我们的金融市场，尽量减少其他经济领域受到的损失。”In other economic news, a private research firm says . consumer confidence has rebounded somewhat this month, aided by falling energy prices, but that the index remains at a low level. Meanwhile, . export growth slowed, while American homebuilders continue to cut spending.总部设在纽约的经济研究机构会议委员会报告说，美国的消费者信心在11月份出人意料地有所提高，主要由于能源价格下降，不过消费者信心指数仍然处于很低的水平。另外，美国的出口增长有所减缓，美国的住宅建筑商继续削减开支。

Macroeconomics is a sub-field of economics that examines the behavior of the economy as a whole, once all of the individual economic decisions of companies and industries have been summed. Economy-wide phenomena considered by macroeconomics include Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and how it is affected by changes in unemployment, national income, rate of growth, and price levels. In contrast, microeconomics is the study of the economic behaviour and decision-making of individual consumers, firms, and industries. Macroeconomics can be used to analyze how to influence government policy goals such as economic growth, price stability, full employment and the attainment of a sustainable balance of payments. Macroeconomics is sometimes used to refer to a general approach to economic reasoning, which includes long term strategies and rational expectations in aggregate behavior. Until the 1930s most economic analysis did not separate out individual economics behavior from aggregate behavior. With the Great Depression of the 1930s, suffered throughout the developed world at the time, and the development of the concept of national income and product statistics, the field of macroeconomics began to expand. Particularly influential were the ideas of John Maynard Keynes, who formulated theories to try to explain the Great Depression. Before that time, comprehensive national accounts, as we know them today, did not exist . One of the challenges of economics has been a struggle to reconcile macroeconomic and microeconomic models. Starting in the 1950s, macroeconomists developed micro-based models of macroeconomic behavior (such as the consumption function). Dutch economist Jan Tinbergen developed the first comprehensive national macroeconomic model, which he first built for the Netherlands and later applied to the United States and the United Kingdom after World War II. The first global macroeconomic model, Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates LINK project, was initiated by Lawrence Klein and was mentioned in his citation for the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics in 1980. Theorists such as Robert Lucas Jr suggested (in the 1970s) that at least some traditional Keynesian (after British economist John Maynard Keynes) macroeconomic models were questionable as they were not derived from assumptions about individual behavior, although it was not clear whether the failures were in microeconomic assumptions or in macroeconomic models. However, New Keynesian macroeconomics has generally presented microeconomic models to shore up their macroeconomic theorizing, and some Keynesians have contested the idea that microeconomic foundations are essential, if the model is analytically useful. An analogy might be that the fact that quantum phisics is not fully consistent with relativity theory doesn´t mean that realtivity is false. Many important microeconomic assumptions have never been proved, and some have proved wrong. The various schools of thought are not always in direct competition with one another - even though they sometimes reach differing conclusions. Macroeconomics is an ever evolving area of research. The goal of economic research is not to be "right," but rather to be accurate. It is likely that none of the current schools of economic thought perfectly capture the workings of the economy. They do, however, each contribute a small piece of the overall puzzle. As one learns more about each school of thought, it is possible to combine aspects of each in order to reach an informed synthesis. The traditional distinction is between two different approaches to economics: Keynesian economics, focusing on demand; and supply-side (or neo-classical) economics, focusing on supply. Neither view is typically endorsed to the complete exclusion of the other, but most schools do tend clearly to emphasize one or the other as a theoretical foundation. • Keynesian economics focuses on aggregate demand to explain levels of unemployment and the business cycle. That is, business cycle fluctuations should be reduced through fiscal policy (the government spends more or less depending on the situation) and monetary policy. Early Keynesian macroeconomics was "activist," calling for regular use of policy to stabilize the capitalist economy, while some Keynesians called for the use of incomes policies. • Supply-side economics delineates quite clearly the roles of monetary policy and fiscal policy. The focus for monetary policy should be purely on the price of money as determined by the supply of money and the demand for money. It advocates a monetary policy that directly targets the value of money and does not target interest rates at all. Typically the value of money is measured by reference to gold or some other reference. The focus of fiscal policy is to raise revenue for worthy government investments with a clear recognition of the impact that taxation has on domestic trade. It places heavy emphasis on Say's law, which states that recessions do not occur because of failure in demand or lack of money. • Monetarism, led by Milton Friedman, which holds that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. It rejects fiscal policy because it leads to "crowding out" of the private sector. Further, it does not wish to combat inflation or deflation by means of active demand management as in Keynesian economics, but by means of monetary policy rules, such as keeping the rate of growth of the money supply constant over time. • New Keynesian economics, which developed partly in response to new classical economics, strives to provide microeconomic foundations to Keynesian economics by showing how imperfect markets can justify demand management. • Austrian economics is a laissez-faire school of macroeconomics. It focuses on the business cycle that arises from government or central-bank interference that leads to deviations from the natural rate of interest. • Post-Keynesian economics represents a dissent from mainstream Keynesian economics, emphasizing the role of uncertainty and the historical process in macroeconomics. • New classical economics. The original theoretical impetus was the charge that Keynesian economics lacks microeconomic foundations -- . its assertions are not founded in basic economic theory. This school emerged during the 1970s. This school asserts that it does not make sense to claim that the economy at any time might be "out-of-equilibrium". Fluctuations in aggregate variables follow from the individuals in the society continuously re-optimizing as new information on the state of the world is revealed. Later yielded an explicit school which argued that macro-economics does not have micro-economic foundations, but is instead the tool of studying economic systems at equilibrium. 宏观经济学是一种分场经济学的行为,研究是在整个经济中,一旦所有的个人的经济决策,为公司和产业被。宏观经济学认为经济现象包括国内生产总值(GDP)以及它是如何变化影响失业的国民收入的)经济成长率、价格水平。相反,微观经济学研究的就是经济行为和决策的个体消费者,公司和行业。宏观经济学可以用来分析如何影响政府的政策的目标,比如经济增长,价格稳定,充分就业和获取可持续国际收支差额。宏观经济学有时用来指一个经济理论的主要途径,包括长期战略的期望和理性综合行为。直到30年代为止,大部分的经济分析没有独立的个人经济综合行为举止。与1930年代的经济大萧条,遭受了在所有发达国家,发展国民收入的概念和产品的统计数据,但是研究领域的宏观经济学开始扩展。具有特殊影响力的想法是,约翰•梅纳德凯恩斯理论,努力向他们解释制定了经济大萧条。在那时候,综合国民经济核算,如同我们知道他们今天,是不存在的。经济学的一个挑战是一场斗争调和宏观经济政策和微观经济政策,模型。开始于20世纪50年代,macroeconomists发达micro-based模型的宏观经济行为(如消费函数)。1月Tinbergen荷兰经济学家第一个全面发展国家宏观经济模型,该模型他第一次建成为荷兰和后应用于美国和英国二战之后。第一个全球宏观经济模型,沃顿计量预测伙伴联系工程项目,发生在劳伦斯发起克莱恩和被提及他的嘉奖经济学诺贝尔经济学奖1980年。理论家如罗伯特·卢卡斯认为(是在上世纪70年代),认为至少有一些传统的凯恩斯(英国经济学家约翰梅纳德凯恩斯)宏观经济模型都是可疑的,因为他们不是来源于假设的个人行为,虽然现在还不清楚这些失败在微观经济的假定,或是对宏观经济模型。然而,最新凯恩斯主义的宏观微观模型提出了大致以支持他们的宏观经济理论有争议,一些凯恩斯主义者的想法,微观经济基础是必要的,如果模型是分析有用的。打个比方可能是,这样的事实,即量子phisics并不完全符合相对论´,并不代表没有realtivity是假的。许多重要的微观经济假设从来没有被证明,而有些人的证明是错误的。各种各样的思想学派并不总是在彼此的直接竞争,尽管他们有时会达到不同的结论。宏观经济学是一种前所未有的领域的研究。研究经济学的目标不是"正确",而是是精确的。很有可能是学校目前尚无一个经济思想完全捕捉运作方式的经济。不过,他们的贡献每一小块整体难题。当你学会更多关于每个思想学派,它能把方面的每一个为了达到一个通知的合成。传统的区别是留给经济学两种不同的方法,重点凯恩斯经济学和供方需求;(或古典)经济学、关注供应。也都是典型的观点完全排除其他,但大多数学校都往往清晰地强调一个或另一个是的理论基础。•凯恩斯经济学交融在总需求,以解释失业率和商业周期。商业周期波动,应减少通过财政政策(政府花费或多或少根据实际情况)和货币政策。早期凯恩斯主义的宏观经济学是“活动家,定期使用《召唤的政策稳定资本主义经济,虽然有些凯恩斯主义要求使用收入政策。•供给的经济学的作用很明显地在当前货币政策与财政政策。关注于货币政策应该是完全对价格的钱所确定的货币供应的需求的特点,为了金钱。它提倡货币政策,直接目标钱的价值,不目标利率。典型的钱的价值在于用参考金或其他参考。财政政策的重点是提高政府农业投资价值的收入为一个明确的认识税收的影响在国内贸易。它设置了过度强调了说的法律,它表明不会发生经济衰退需求下降、因为没有缺钱。•货币主义的带领下,由弗里德曼,认为始终通货膨胀是一种货币现象。财政政策拒绝,因为会导致“挤退”的私人生活。此外,它不希望对抗通货膨胀或通货紧缩采用主动需求管理在凯恩斯经济学,通过货币政策规则,即坚持的增长速度恒定的钱。凯恩斯•新经济发达的部分原因是为了适应新古典经济学、致力于提供凯恩斯现代经济学的微观经济基础显示出了市场的不完善就能名正言顺的需求管理等。•奥地利经济学是个自由放任主义的学校的宏观经济。它侧重于商业周期,而政府或中央银行的干扰导致偏离自然失业率的兴趣。•Post-Keynesian经济学所代表了凯恩斯经济学主流的作用,强调历史过程中不确定性和宏观经济。•新古典经济学。原理论动力的费用是凯恩斯经济学缺乏有效的微观经济基础——亦即其断言不成立于基本经济理论。这所学校出现在20世纪70年代。这所学校断言它是没有道理的主张经济会随时out-of-equilibrium”。波动的总变量遵从的在这个社会的个人不断re-optimizing新信息的状态的世界就会显现出来。后来取得了一个显式学校一样,认为宏观经济学没有微观经济基础,反而学习经济系统的工具在平衡。

Before we start, let's talk a bit about collocations. Collocations are groups of words that are commonly used together. Native speakers are so used to using them, they know what sounds "right" and what sounds "wrong."在我们开始之前，我们来谈下搭配。搭配是指常用的词组搭配到一起。当地人很习惯于用这些，他们知道什么的搭配听起来是对的，什么是错的。For example, in English the phrase "go online" is a natural way to refer to using the internet. But it wouldn't be natural to say something like "proceed online" or "travel online", even though "proceed" and "travel" are other ways to express “go.” You’ll hear lots of collocations related to office life in today's dialog. Listen out for them and we'll explain what they mean and how to use them in the debrief. 比如，英语中的短语上网，就是使用网络的意思，甚至用前进和旅游来表达这个意思。在今天的播客中，你将听到很多和办公生活有关的搭配。仔细听，我们将会解释它们的意思以及如何在听取报告的时候使用它。Now, on to the role of an administrative assistant. The job title of "administrative assistant", or "admin assistant" for short, can cover quite a broad range of responsibilities. Admin assistants typically spend a lot of time handling data—whether it's timesheets recording the working hours of other employees, or rosters used for scheduling meeting rooms. Much of what they do involves making sure that other employees are working as efficiently as possible. 现在，来谈谈一个行政助理的职责。通常他们要花很长时间处理数据，不论是日程表记录，雇员的工作时间，还是会议地点安排的执勤人员表。这些很多都牵涉到确认是否有效地工作。In this episode we'll talk with Christina, who works as an admin assistant in the human resources department of an auto parts manufacturer. Christina's going to tell us about some of the responsibilities of her position. 在这节播客中，我们将和克里斯蒂娜交谈，她是汽车配件生产商的人事部的行政助理。克里斯蒂娜将会告诉我们有关她职责的细节。Collocations are a challenge for anyone learning English. There aren't any specific rules to follow. You just have to listen for what sounds right. Still, they're essential for English communication and important to keep in mind when you learn new vocabulary—don't just think about the new word, think about what other words it might be used with. We'll point out some useful collocations related to daily office work as we go through this lesson. 词语搭配对于英语学习者来说是一个挑战。没有严格的条款去依循。你必须去听听起来是对的。并且，当你学 学了新的词汇，不要只是觉得他们是新的词汇，要想到其他的一些可能会用到的其他词语，而搭配对于记住这些新的词至关重 要。Administrative assistants are important to any business organization. For example, they make sure data is handled responsibly and records are maintained properly. It might seem like they work in the background, but their jobs are critical to the smooth running of a company. 行政助理对于任何商业组织都很重要。比如，他们要确保 数据正确，记录好公司正常运行的数据。In the last episode we met Christina, the Head Administrative Assistant in the Human Resources department at LaFarge Automotive. In an interview, Christina told us about some of her usual job duties. Today, she'll talk about why her work is so important to the company. 上一集中，我们了解了克里斯蒂娜，在拉法基汽车公司人事部门的 总的行政助理。在这个访谈中，克里斯蒂娜告诉了我们她的日常工作。今天，她将要谈论她的工作对于整个公司的重要性。

Will oil be the kiss of death for recovery?The price of oil has suddenly broken higher – to the point where triple-digit crude is once again in the week oil climbed to $87 a barrel, its highest level since October 2008. This was after a period of eight months when oil traded between $70 and $80, a narrow band that pleased oil producers without hurting consumers too latest surge seems to have been prompted by rising confidence in a global economic recovery, even if most traders and bankers are still cautious about supply and demand fundamentals. The more bullish Wall Street banks see prices climbing further, with Barclays Capital forecasting $97, Goldman Sachs $110 and Morgan Stanley $100 next the higher prices go, the deeper the concerns that they will stifle global growth. Jeff Rubin, a former CIBC chief economist and author of a book on oil and globalization, says: “Triple-digit oil prices are going to threaten a world recovery.”Pricier oil and other key commodities, notably iron ore and copper, could ripple through the economy and financial markets, potentially triggering inflation and forcing central banks to lift interest rates from ultra-low levels. This could force bond yields higher, but lower the attractions of , higher oil prices could lift energy shares. In the S&P 500 index, the energy sector is up just per cent this year and was barely positive in the first quarter, lagging behind the index's 6 per cent gain for the Colas, ConvergEx Group chief market strategist, says: “With crude oil prices marching steadily higher, portfolio exposure to the energy sector could well become a key determinant of overall investment performance through the balance of 2010.”Oil prices first hit $100 a barrel in January 2008, before continuing their rapid ascent to peak at $147 in July of that year. They fell to a low of $32 in December 2008, before recovering again. Yesterday oil traded at about $85 a latest rise comes as the economic recovery fuels a jump in oil demand after the first global decline in a quarter century. Supply is not a worry, as the Opec oil cartel has more than 6m b/d of capacity to spare in a difference from last year is that then the oil price was rising against the backdrop of a weaker dollar. This year crude and the dollar have risen seem untroubled. Energy ministers at the International Energy Forum in Mexico last week embraced less volatility, not lower prices. Lawrence Summers, director of the US National Economic Council, in remarks this week bemoaned his country's dependence on foreign oil supplies, but did not complain about economists do not view $80 oil as a threat to global growth, which the International Monetary Fund projects at 4 per cent this year. James Hamilton, an economist at the University of California, San Diego, is author of a paper that found oil's 2008 surge to $147 a barrel helped tip a housing-led slowdown into a recession. This time, the relatively steady nature of the price rebound has allowed consumers to adjust.“The shock value is gone now,” Prof Hamilton Allidina, commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley, says the $100 oil he predicts next year would increase the “oil burden” – a function of demand, prices and global output – to about 4 per cent from per cent late last year. This would hurt developed economies more than emerging ones, as the latter are powering global growth and can afford fuel subsidies, he says. The IMF estimates consumer petroleum subsidies will reach almost $250bn this year. “If we were to move to $100 a barrel, economic growth would start to slow, but ‘derail' is likely too strong a word,” Mr Allidina move to higher oil prices would not necessarily generate corresponding gains in retail fuel prices, as new refining capacity has made petrol markets more competitive. In the US, filling stations in most states still sell petrol for less than $3 a gallon, well below the peak of 2008. In the UK, however, petrol prices are close to record highs, even though crude is well below its any case, prices are as much an effect of the economic expansion as a threat to it. China, the fastest-growing economy, is alone expected to consume 520,000 b/d more this year than last, contributing a third of global demand growth, according to International Energy Agency estimates.“You can't have a global recovery without the oil price recovering as well,” says Lutz Kilian, a University of Michigan economist who has studied the effects of oil shocks. Because demand is fuelling prices, “the only way to keep oil prices down is to remain in a recession, which hardly sounds attractive”. The prospect of higher prices is still alarming to many observers. Olivier Jakob, of Swiss consultant Petromatrix, said in a note that the “recovery of 2009 was fuelled with crude oil at $62 a barrel, not at $90 a barrel or $100 a barrel. We fear that the latest run on WTI will be the kiss of death for a global economy that was trying to avoid the possibility of a double-dip recession.”When oil prices last surged to $100 a barrel in late 2007, US and other rich-country consumers blunted the impact by drawing on home-equity loans and credit cards to finance petrol purchases, says David Greely, energy economist at Goldman Sachs.“It does raise the issue if we're in a much more credit constrained world going forward, are consumers able to do that or will they be more sensitive?” he asks 高油价：死亡之吻？油价突然之间已经破位上行，三位数水平似乎再度触手可及。上周油价升至每桶87美元，为2008年10月以来的最高水平。此前8个月，油价一直运行在70-80美元这个狭窄区间内，这一价位既让石油生产国满意，也不至于给石油消费国造成太大损害。最新这轮涨势似乎是受到人们对全球经济复苏的信心日增的推动，尽管多数交易员和银行家对供需基本面依然抱着谨慎看法。较为乐观的华尔街银行预计油价将进一步上涨，其中巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)预计明年油价会涨到97美元，高盛(Goldman Sachs)预计会涨到110美元，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)预计涨到100美元。然而，油价涨得越高，人们就越是担心它会扼杀全球增长。加拿大帝国商业银行(CIBC)前首席经济学家杰夫•鲁宾(Jeff Rubin)表示：“油价如达到三位数水平，将危及全球复苏。”鲁宾写有一本论述石油与全球化的著作。石油及其它主要大宗商品（尤其是铁矿石和铜）价格上涨，可能对经济和金融市场产生连锁反应，触发通胀，迫使各央行提高目前处于极低水平的利率。这可能推高债券收益率，但会降低股票的吸引力。不过，油价上涨会利好能源股。在标普500指数中，能源板块今年以来仅上涨，其中在首季只是勉强维持上涨，而整体指数今年迄今已上涨6%。ConvergEx Group首席策略师尼古拉斯•克拉斯(Nicholas Colas)表示：“随着原油价格稳步走高，投资组合中的能源股敞口，很可能成为决定今年余下时间总体投资表现的一个关键因素。”油价第一次触及每桶100美元是在2008年1月。其后油价继续快速上行，至当年7月于147美元见顶。2008年12月，油价跌至32美元低点，后来再度回升。上周四油价处于每桶85美元附近。这次油价上涨的背景是：全球经济在度过25年来的首次衰退后，出现复苏，推动石油需求大幅增长。供应面没有问题，石油卡特尔组织欧佩克(Opec)必要时可立即启用逾600万桶/日的富余产能。与去年不同的一点是，当时油价上涨发生在美元走弱的背景下，而今年石油和美元一起上涨。各国政策制定者似乎没有觉得不安。最近在墨西哥举行的国际能源论坛(International Energy Forum)上，各国能源部长感到欢欣的是油价波动减小，而非价格走低。美国国家经济委员会(National Economic Council)主任劳伦斯•萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)上周发表讲话时，哀叹美国过度依赖外国石油，但没有抱怨油价。一些经济学家不认为每桶80美元的油价会对全球增长构成威胁。国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计今年全球经济将增长4%。加州大学圣迭戈分校的经济学家詹姆斯•汉密尔顿(James Hamilton)在一篇论文中指出，2008年油价飙升至每桶147美元，对住宅市场引发的经济放缓演变成衰退起到了推波助澜的作用。这次油价回升的势头相对平稳，让消费者能够适应。“现在冲击力消失了，”汉密尔顿表示。摩根士丹利大宗商品策略师侯赛因•阿里迪纳(Hussein Allidina)预计明年油价将达到每桶100美元水平。他表示，这将导致“石油负担”(oil burden)，即石油需求、价格与全球产出之间的一个函数，从去年底的升至4%左右。他说，发达经济体从中受到的损害将大于发展中经济体，因为后者正在推动全球增长，而且有能力发放燃油补贴。IMF估计，今年石油消费补贴总额将接近2500亿美元。如果油价升至每桶100美元，经济增长将开始放缓，但若说‘破坏'就可能言过其辞了，” 阿里迪纳表示。随着新增炼油产能使汽油市场竞争加剧，原油价格上涨未必会带动燃油零售价相应幅度的上涨。在美国多数州的加油站，汽油售价仍不到每加仑3美元，远低于2008年时的峰值。不过，在英国，汽油价格接近历史高位，尽管原油价格远低于历史最高水平。总之，油价既受到经济扩张的推动，也对经济扩张构成威胁。据国际能源机构(IEA)估计，在全球增长最快的经济体中国，今年石油日消费量将同比增加52万桶，占全球需求增量的三分之一。“在全球复苏的形势下，油价不可能不回升，”研究过石油冲击影响的密歇根大学经济学家卢茨•基连(Lutz Kilian)表示。因为需求正在推高价格，“要使油价保持在低位，唯一的办法是让经济继续维持衰退，这听上去一点都不吸引人。”不过，油价上涨的前景仍让许多观察家感到担心。瑞士咨询公司Petromatrix的奥利维尔•雅各布(Olivier Jakob)在一份研究简报中称：“2009年的复苏是由每桶62美元的原油推动的，不是每桶90美元、也不是每桶100美元。我们担心，对于正在设法避免双底衰退的全球经济来说，WTI(西德克萨斯州中质原油)的最新走势将是死亡之吻。”高盛能源经济学家戴维•格瑞利(David Greely)表示，上次油价在2007年底逼近100美元时，美国及其它富裕国家的消费者使用房屋净值贷款和信用卡支付汽油费用，淡化了油价上涨的影响。“现在面临一个问题，如果今后信贷紧缩状况明显超过以往，消费者还能这么做吗，或者他们将变得更加敏感？”